Assessments
Time-bound predictions under active review, including assessments that reached horizon and still need a final human resolution.
Time-bound predictions under active review, including assessments that reached horizon and still need a final human resolution.
Public note
For situational awareness and research transparency. Not medical advice.
At least 5 additional novel NDM (New Delhi metallo-β-lactamase) variants (NDM-64 through NDM-68 or beyond — building on the ~100 variants reported through NDM-63, the L3-loop variant in Klebsiella pneumoniae described in PMC12888852) will be deposited in NCBI Pathogen Detection / Beta-Lactamase Database / GenBank between 2026-04-20 and 2027-04-20.
The next WHO/ECDC "TB Surveillance and Monitoring in Europe" report (covering 2025 surveillance year, expected publication ~March 2027) will show the WHO European Region MDR/RR-TB rate among NEW TB cases ≥20% (no improvement of >3 percentage points vs the 23% reported in the 2024 surveillance year published 2026-03-23).
At least one secondary MDR-TB case epidemiologically or genomically linked to the Southwestern Community College (Chula Vista, San Diego County) index exposure announced 2026-04-09 will be confirmed by San Diego County HHSA Tuberculosis Program contact tracing by 2026-06-19.
A locally-acquired Clade I mpox transmission chain (≥2 epidemiologically linked cases without African travel history) will be confirmed in North America within 90 days of the San Francisco Clade I detection (Apr 19 2026).
At least one confirmed mpox Clade IIb case linked to Singapore will be detected in Japan, South Korea, or Australia by October 2026, given Singapore's confirmation of local Clade IIb transmission (Apr 14 2026) and its role as the primary aviation hub for East Asia–Pacific travel.
Mpox clade Ib will be confirmed in at least 2 East African countries outside the DRC by April 2026.
California will confirm at least 2 additional Clade I mpox cases (beyond the San Francisco Apr 16 index) within 60 days of Apr 20 2026, with at least one in Los Angeles County or adjacent counties — indicating multi-focus Clade I circulation rather than isolated importation.
Mpox Clade Ib will establish at least one additional documented sustained community transmission chain outside the African continent by July 2026.
Uganda Sudan Virus Disease outbreak (Africa CDC Brief 15, Apr 2026) will include ≥1 confirmed healthcare worker case, indicating nosocomial amplification within the initial cluster.
A novel recombinant mpox lineage arising from tri-clade co-circulation (Clade Ia, Ib, and Clade IIb) in the Republic of the Congo will be genomically documented by April 2027, based on the first reported co-circulation of all three major mpox clades in a single geography.
Mpox Clade IIb C.1 will establish sustained community transmission in at least one additional Southeast Asian country beyond Cambodia by October 2026, based on the documented Phnom Penh outbreak and regional mobility patterns.
WHO will issue pediatric-specific mpox vaccination guidance or Emergency Committee recommendation addressing Clade Ib-affected/at-risk regions including South/Southeast Asia within 180 days, driven by documented pediatric mortality in Pakistan (9 deaths) and Singapore community transmission.
A new confirmed filovirus spillover event (Ebola, Marburg, or Sudan virus ≥1 laboratory-confirmed human case) will be reported in Central or East Africa within 180 days of the Uganda SVD closure, consistent with the ~1-2 per year regional filovirus base rate.
Oropouche virus will cause ≥1,000 confirmed cases in a country outside Brazil/Bolivia in the 2026 Americas arbovirus season (April–December 2026), based on 11,634 confirmed multi-country cases by Nov 2024 and WHO confirmation that the 2026 season is now beginning.
A new confirmed VHF outbreak (Ebola, Marburg, Sudan Virus, or CCHF) with ≥3 laboratory-confirmed cases will be detected in sub-Saharan Africa within 90 days of the Uganda Sudan Virus Disease outbreak closure, consistent with endemic spillover frequency in the Great Lakes/East African bat reservoir zone.
An 8th (or subsequent numbered) published case of sustained HIV-1 remission (≥12 months viral suppression off ART after analytic treatment interruption) will be reported in a peer-reviewed journal or a CROI/IAS conference abstract within 180 days, extending the series following the Dec 2025 Nature paper on heterozygous CCR5Δ32 stem-cell-transplant remission.
At least one Eastern Europe / Central Asia (EECA) country will release official national HIV surveillance data showing a ≥15% year-over-year increase in newly diagnosed HIV cases (2024 vs 2023 OR 2025 vs 2024), published in UNAIDS, ECDC, WHO EURO, or national MoH surveillance reports within 180 days.
At least one PEPFAR-supported sub-Saharan African country will report a ≥10% relative increase in mother-to-child HIV transmission rate in a 2025 cohort vs 2024 baseline, published in PEPFAR Country Operational Plan data, UNICEF Global AIDS Update, UNAIDS epidemiological estimates, or peer-reviewed literature within 180 days.
A US federal court (district, appellate, or Supreme Court) will issue at least one substantive ruling (merits opinion, preliminary injunction, or contempt order) on the lawfulness of Trump-administration impoundment or conditional restriction of PEPFAR-appropriated funds within 180 days.
The Global Fund 8th Replenishment (pledging cycle closing Q4 2026) will secure ≥20% less than the ~$18B ask (i.e., <$14.4B) at the Johannesburg pledging conference, measured at official conference close or by interim ≥20% downward revision of the target by GF Board within 180 days.
The Penobscot County, Maine HIV outbreak (40 confirmed cases Mar 20 2026, still growing Apr 7) will be officially recognized as a CDC HIV molecular cluster with ≥75 confirmed cases reported by Maine DHHS or CDC within 90 days.
At least one published case of incident (breakthrough) HIV-1 infection in an individual receiving twice-yearly lenacapavir PrEP per protocol, with documented capsid-gene resistance-associated mutation (Q67H/K, N74D, M66I, K70N, T107N/A, or similar), will be reported within 180 days of LEN PrEP rollout expansion (post-FDA approval Jun 2025, PEPFAR+GF investment Apr 2026).
At least one published cluster (≥10 patients, single country/cohort) of TLD (tenofovir-lamivudine-dolutegravir) virological failure with emergent major INSTI resistance mutations (R263K, G118R, G140S/Q148H/R/K, N155H, or Y143C/R/H) will be reported from a sub-Saharan African cohort within 180 days.
At least one additional distinct pediatric HIV cluster (≥10 seroconversions, children <15, different facility than Larkana/Ratodero 2019 and the Apr 2026 Punjab hospital) will be publicly reported in Pakistan within 90 days, attributed to unsafe-injection or blood-product iatrogenic transmission.
A new HIV transmission cluster with molecular surveillance evidence will be reported in a new geography within 180 days.
A circulating recombinant form or rapidly expanding HIV subtype cluster with outbreak-like transmission dynamics will be reported within 180 days.
A public report will identify transmitted HIV drug resistance or antiretroviral treatment failure in a growing cluster within 180 days.
Mpox Clade IIb C.1 community transmission in Phnom Penh will be documented to involve a heterosexual or mixed-route transmission cluster by July 2026, based on phylogenomic confirmation of community spread and newly published MPXV replication efficiency in vaginal and ectocervical epithelial tissue.
Female sex worker involvement will be documented in the Phnom Penh Clade IIb C.1 outbreak by September 2026, consistent with MPXV replication efficiency in vaginal and ectocervical tissue and the mixed-network structure of sex worker outreach programs in Cambodia.
Field-circulating H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b isolates will be confirmed via published receptor binding specificity assay to demonstrate measurable human (α-2,6 sialic acid) receptor affinity alongside avian (α-2,3) affinity by Q3 2026, based on ongoing receptor binding specificity analyses of current strains.