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Public note

For situational awareness and research transparency. Not medical advice.

Novel Pathogen Detectionresolved

Mpox Clade Ib will establish at least one additional documented sustained community transmission chain outside the African continent by July 2026.

System-generated assessment. This assessment remains under review until the stated horizon or until sufficient evidence allows evaluation.

Substantial confidence

Confidence in this assessment
70%

Multiple lines of evidence are aligned, though the assessment remains provisional. Based on 22 linked evidence items and assessed against Jul 1, 2026.

Assessed through Jul 1, 2026·22 linked evidence items·Tracking since Apr 13, 2026

02

How this assessment will be evaluated

The criteria the system uses to determine whether this assessment is borne out by the stated horizon.

Automated

Method

Evidence Match

The condition the system checks for when evaluating this assessment.

Minimum source quality

T1Primary Institutional

Evidence must meet or exceed this credibility tier to count toward evaluation.

Required terms

transmissionadditionaldocumentedestablish

Outcome

Apr 13, 2026
Observed by horizonReliability score (Brier): 8.000

Resolved with score 8

T2·Unknown

03

Evidence quality mix

Tracking since Apr 13, 2026.

T13
T219
▸Integrity referencesCryptographic hashes for verification

Registration

Resolution signature

06

Scope synthesis

The current analyst narrative for this scope.

Open synthesis →

Clade Ib multi-modal European spread continues; new research confirms MPXV replication in vaginal/ectocervical tissue, strengthening plausibility of non-sexual transmission routes.

07

Evidence linked to this assessment

22 linked items.

Broader transmission of mpox due to clade Ib MPXV – Global situation. Multiple modes of transmis

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 14 tracked assessments.

T1https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2025-DON587supports
Apr 17, 2026
Broader transmission of mpox due to clade Ib MPXV – Global situation. As both MPXV clades I and

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 15 tracked assessments.

T1https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2025-DON587
supports
Apr 17, 2026
Broader transmission of mpox due to clade Ib MPXV – Global situation. The second declaration of

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 15 tracked assessments.

T1https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2025-DON587supports
Apr 17, 2026
MPOX - USA (03): (CALIFORNIA) SAN FRANCISCO, CLADE I. The CDPH is monitoring the situation and e

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 2 tracked assessments.

T2https://www.promedmail.org/?alert=8732325neutral
Apr 19, 2026
MPOX - USA (03): (CALIFORNIA) SAN FRANCISCO, CLADE I. The California Department of Public Health

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 2 tracked assessments.

T2https://www.promedmail.org/?alert=8732325neutral
Apr 19, 2026
Epidemiology and phylogenomic characterization of the Clade IIb C.1 Mpox outbreak in Phnom Penh,

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 13 tracked assessments.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41575511/supports
Apr 14, 2026
Epidemiology and phylogenomic characterization of the Clade IIb C.1 Mpox outbreak in Phnom Penh,

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 13 tracked assessments.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41575511/supports
Apr 14, 2026
Epidemiology and phylogenomic characterization of the Clade IIb C.1 Mpox outbreak in Phnom Penh,

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 13 tracked assessments.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41575511/supports
Apr 14, 2026
Epidemiology and phylogenomic characterization of the Clade IIb C.1 Mpox outbreak in Phnom Penh,

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 13 tracked assessments.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41575511/supports
Apr 13, 2026
Epidemiology and phylogenomic characterization of the Clade IIb C.1 Mpox outbreak in Phnom Penh,

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 13 tracked assessments.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41575511/supports
Apr 13, 2026
Epidemiology and phylogenomic characterization of the Clade IIb C.1 Mpox outbreak in Phnom Penh,

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 13 tracked assessments.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41575511/supports
Apr 13, 2026
Broader transmission of mpox due to clade Ib MPXV – Global situation. Multiple modes of transmis

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 14 tracked assessments.

T2https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2025-DON587supports
Apr 13, 2026
Broader transmission of mpox due to clade Ib MPXV – Global situation. As both MPXV clades I and

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 15 tracked assessments.

T2https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2025-DON587supports
Apr 13, 2026
Broader transmission of mpox due to clade Ib MPXV – Global situation. The second declaration of

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 15 tracked assessments.

T2https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2025-DON587supports
Apr 13, 2026
MPOX - GHANA (05): EPIDEMIC UPDATE. The Ghana Health Service has confirmed additional cases of m

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 12 tracked assessments.

T2https://www.promedmail.org/?alert=8732298supports
Apr 17, 2026
Genomic diversity of Clade Ia monkeypox virus in the Central African Republic, 2019-2024. Multip

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 1 tracked assessment.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41830101/neutral
Apr 17, 2026
Genomic diversity of Clade Ia monkeypox virus in the Central African Republic, 2019-2024. Monkey

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 1 tracked assessment.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41830101/neutral
Apr 17, 2026
Genomic diversity of Clade Ia monkeypox virus in the Central African Republic, 2019-2024. Multip

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 1 tracked assessment.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41830101/neutral
Apr 14, 2026
Genomic diversity of Clade Ia monkeypox virus in the Central African Republic, 2019-2024. Monkey

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 1 tracked assessment.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41830101/neutral
Apr 14, 2026
Genomic diversity of Clade Ia monkeypox virus in the Central African Republic, 2019-2024. Multip

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 1 tracked assessment.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41830101/neutral
Apr 13, 2026
Genomic diversity of Clade Ia monkeypox virus in the Central African Republic, 2019-2024. Monkey

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 1 tracked assessment.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41830101/neutral
Apr 13, 2026
Pakistan Sindh Mpox Update — Apr 14 2026 (Sindh Health Department, via The Nation Pakistan, Apr

This report is recorded in the evidence trail but is not yet linked to a tracked assessment.

T2https://www.nation.com.pk/16-Apr-2026/mpox-update-25-confirmed-cases-9-deaths-reported-sindhneutral
Apr 20, 2026

Integrity anchor

Brier 0.202

19 resolved novel pathogen detection predictions.