Assessments
Time-bound predictions under active review, including assessments that reached horizon and still need a final human resolution.
Time-bound predictions under active review, including assessments that reached horizon and still need a final human resolution.
Public note
For situational awareness and research transparency. Not medical advice.
Hong Kong will confirm ≥3 locally acquired dengue cases in the 2026 vector season (April–October), establishing autochthonous dengue transmission as a recurrent annual feature in sub-tropical East Asia beyond established endemic zones.
Autochthonous dengue transmission will be reported in at least 2 Southern European countries during the 2026 season.
At least one new laboratory-confirmed filovirus spillover (Ebola species, Marburg, or Sudan virus ≥1 human case) will be reported by WHO DON or Africa CDC in sub-Saharan Africa between 2026-04-20 and 2026-10-20. Base rate: 2024-2025 saw Rwanda Marburg (Oct 2024), Uganda SVD (Jan-Apr 2025), DRC Ebola (Sep-Dec 2025), Ethiopia Marburg (Nov 2025-Jan 2026) — 4 distinct filovirus spillovers in ~14 months.</magnitude> <parameter name="key_assumption">Great Lakes/East Africa/Horn-of-Africa filovirus reservoir ecology unchanged; WHO IHR reporting functioning; Africa CDC active surveillance in Centra...
The Uganda Sudan Virus Disease outbreak will receive an official WHO Disease Outbreak News entry within 30 days of the Africa CDC Outbreak Brief 15 (Apr 19 2026).
Uganda Sudan Virus Disease outbreak (Africa CDC Outbreak Brief 15, Apr 2026) will either be declared over by WHO/Uganda MoH OR expand to ≥2 additional districts with ≥10 laboratory-confirmed cases total within 90 days.
ECDC will formally classify Candidozyma auris (formerly Candida auris) as endemic in ≥3 EU/EEA countries via a technical report, surveillance update, or risk assessment by 2026-10-17, formalizing the trajectory described in Medscape 2026-04-13 ("C auris Is Now Endemic in Europe. Can It Be Contained?") and CIDRAP 2025-09-11 ("Multidrug-resistant yeast cases rising rapidly in Europe, survey shows").
tetM-carrying N. gonorrhoeae prevalence in US surveillance reaches ≥30% by EOY 2026 OR ≥3 independent confirmed extensively drug-resistant (ceftriaxone+azithromycin+ciprofloxacin simultaneously resistant) N. gonorrhoeae transmission clusters documented in US/EU/AU during 2026, threatening the doxyPEP era and last-line cephalosporin therapy.
CDC will publish a Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR) early release or health advisory specifically characterizing XDR Shigella (azithromycin + fluoroquinolone + 3GC resistant) geographic spread and treatment guidance within 60 days of the April 13 2026 emergence report (by June 12 2026), consistent with CDC's precedent of issuing MMWR early releases for novel drug-resistant Shigella phenotypes (2022-2023 ceftriaxone-resistant Shigella MMWR).
At least one XDR Shigella case with genomic linkage to the US April 2026 emergence cluster will be confirmed in Australia, Canada, or Japan within 120 days (by August 13 2026), based on high-frequency MSM travel networks connecting these countries to the US, and the historical 2022-2023 pattern where drug-resistant Shigella reached high-income Pacific Rim countries within 8 months of initial US detection.
BA.3.2 ("Cicada") will cause a detectable wastewater elevation (≥20% increase from Q1 2026 baseline) in ≥3 of the 14 monitored countries by 2026-06-30, driven by immune escape from prior SARS-CoV-2 immunity.
SARS-CoV-2 wastewater concentrations across 14 monitored countries will remain below winter 2025-26 peak through Q2 2026.
Autochthonous chikungunya transmission will be documented in at least one additional Chinese province beyond Guangdong during the 2026 warm season (May–October), confirmed by national health authority or peer-reviewed publication.
La Réunion 2026 chikungunya outbreak will exceed 100,000 cumulative reported cases by August 31 2026, based on the 47,500+ case trajectory as of April 2026 and the historical precedent of the 2005-2006 Réunion epidemic reaching 266,000 cases over a longer surveillance period, given that 2026 surveillance capacity and reporting speed are substantially higher than 2005.
ECDC will issue a rapid risk assessment or seasonal preparedness alert specifically addressing La Réunion and/or Mayotte chikungunya importation risk for Mediterranean Europe (Italy, Spain, France, Greece) before the 2026 vector season peak (by July 1, 2026), given the 47,500+ case scale of the La Réunion outbreak and established Aedes albopictus populations in Southern Europe.
La Réunion chikungunya outbreak will sustain >10,000 cumulative reported cases through at least July 31 2026, maintaining active seeding pressure on metropolitan France during the peak Aedes albopictus transmission window.
Viremic travelers from La Réunion will seed at least one documented autochthonous chikungunya cluster (≥2 locally-acquired cases) in Italy, Spain, or Greece during the 2026 vector season (July–October), given the scale of the current La Réunion outbreak (47,500+ cases) and established Aedes albopictus populations in Mediterranean Europe.
First confirmed autochthonous dengue or chikungunya transmission in the UK, Netherlands, Belgium, or Germany will be documented during the 2026 or 2027 Northern Hemisphere transmission season (June–October).
Cambodia will report ≥8 cumulative human H5N1 cases for calendar year 2026 (currently 4 as of Apr 22), sustaining or exceeding the 2025 pace and establishing SE Asia as the leading human-case jurisdiction globally.
Simultaneous chikungunya escalation across ≥4 distinct geographic regions (Indian Ocean, Mediterranean Europe, East Asia, Americas) will be confirmed in 2026 arbovirus season reports by WHO/ECDC/PAHO as a structurally new multi-region synchronized expansion pattern distinct from historical single-region epidemic cycles.
USDA or peer-reviewed publication will document within-herd H5N1 transmission in US dairy cattle attributable to semen-route exposure (confirmed via epidemiological linkage or experimental inoculation) within 120 days of the Apr 21 2026 tri-state semen RNA announcement.
Spain will document ≥500 autochthonous chikungunya cases in the 2026 vector season (April–October 2026), confirming the expanded transmission window as epidemiologically significant and establishing a quantitative baseline for the 2027 autochthonous cycle.
Mauritius 2026 CHIK outbreak will exceed 5,000 confirmed cases by Aug 31 2026, reflecting regional Indian Ocean arboviral season co-driven by same La Réunion/Mascarene climate warming pattern.
Spain will document autochthonous chikungunya transmission in 2027 season with ≥100 confirmed cases, establishing consecutive-year (2026-2027) endemic seasonal transmission status in mainland Spain
H5N1 venereal or semen-mediated transmission between dairy cattle will be confirmed as a documentable within-herd or between-herd transmission route by Sep 2026 via USDA experimental study, field epidemiological investigation, or peer-reviewed publication
BA.3.2 will show documented excess pediatric hospitalization burden vs adult rate in at least one national surveillance dataset by Sep 30 2026.
Clade Ib MPXV tecovirimat treatment failure documented in at least one European cluster case by Oct 2026.
No novel sarbecovirus or merbecovirus with sustained human-to-human transmission declared via WHO DON or equivalent PHEIC-class authority through 2026-12-31.
At least one additional EU/G7 country beyond Spain will report a documented Clade Ib mpox sustained transmission cluster (≥5 epidemiologically linked cases over ≥3 weeks) by September 30 2026, driven by the WHO DON587-confirmed multi-mode global Clade Ib spread and cross-border network linkage with Spain's ongoing outbreak.
Chikungunya will establish autochthonous transmission in at least one subtropical East Asian city outside Guangdong Province (e.g., Taiwan, South Korea, or Japan) during the 2026 or 2027 vector season, based on the documented 2025 Guangzhou urban epidemic demonstrating CHIK transmission competence in a temperate-subtropical East Asian megacity.
At least one PEPFAR-dependent sub-Saharan African country will report a ≥20% absolute decline in HIV viral-load testing volume in 2025 vs 2024, published in PEPFAR Country Operational Plan data, WHO HIV reports, peer-reviewed literature, or official MoH statistics within 180 days.