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Epi Canary — Epidemic IntelligenceEvidence-led epidemic intelligence. Source-attributed evidence.
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Public note

For situational awareness and research transparency. Not medical advice.

Geographic Spreadresolved

Mpox clade Ib will be confirmed in at least 2 East African countries outside the DRC by April 2026.

System-generated assessment. This assessment remains under review until the stated horizon or until sufficient evidence allows evaluation.

High confidence

Confidence in this assessment
85%+7%

Evidence is strong and consistent, while still subject to revision as new data arrives. Based on 22 linked evidence items and assessed against Apr 30, 2026.

Confidence trend

Up 7 pts from the previous update

Assessed through Apr 30, 2026·22 linked evidence items·Tracking since Jan 10, 2026

02

How this assessment will be evaluated

The criteria the system uses to determine whether this assessment is borne out by the stated horizon.

Automated

Method

Evidence Match

The condition the system checks for when evaluating this assessment.

Minimum source quality

T1Primary Institutional

Evidence must meet or exceed this credibility tier to count toward evaluation.

Required terms

mpoxclade Ibconfirmed

Outcome

Mar 22, 2026
Observed by horizonReliability score (Brier): 0.022

WHO DON confirmed mpox clade Ib cases in Rwanda and Uganda, satisfying the geographic expansion criterion of 2+ East African countries outside DRC.

03

Evidence quality mix

Tracking since Jan 10, 2026.

T04
T19
T26
T32
T41
▸Integrity referencesCryptographic hashes for verification

Registration

d6b1f24e5a7c8d9e0f1a2b3c4d5e6f7a8b9c0d1e2f3a4b5c6d7e8f9a0b1c2d3

Resolution signature

c5a0e13d4f6b7c8d9e0f1a2b3c4d5e6f7a8b9c0d1e2f3a4b5c6d7e8f9a0b1c2

07

Evidence linked to this assessment

0 linked items.

No linked evidence is available for this assessment yet.

T1
·WHO Disease Outbreak News
·source document