This record shows how well past assessments aligned with what was later observed. Entries are append-only and integrity-protected for public review.
Public note
For situational awareness and research transparency. Not medical advice.
Reliability assessment
Brier score 0.089 means your confidence on past assessments was off by 8.9 percentage points on average. 8 of 24 assessments have resolved; 14 remain open. Trend: improving over recent months.
Reliability score
0.089
Lower scores indicate better alignment between prior confidence and what was later observed. Technical label: Brier.
Total assessments
Reached an outcome
Still open
Horizon passed
Withdrawn
Novel Pathogen Detection
Whether a novel pathogen will be detected or confirmed in a new setting by the stated horizon.
0.120
Reliability score (Brier)
100%
Directional alignment
1 with outcomes
Sustained Transmission
Whether a pathogen will achieve ongoing person-to-person spread by the stated horizon.
0.065
Reliability score (Brier)
100%
Directional alignment
2 with outcomes
Geographic Spread
Whether a pathogen or disease will be confirmed in a new geographic area by the stated horizon.
0.045
Reliability score (Brier)
100%
Directional alignment
2 with outcomes
Severity Change
Whether severity markers such as hospital burden or fatality rate will change meaningfully by the stated horizon.
0.150
Reliability score (Brier)
50%
Directional alignment
1 with outcomes
Outbreak Direction
Whether an ongoing outbreak will move above or below a defined threshold by the stated horizon.
0.055
Reliability score (Brier)
100%
Directional alignment
2 with outcomes
Resistance Emergence
Whether new antimicrobial resistance patterns will emerge or spread by the stated horizon.
0.000
Reliability score (Brier)
0%
Directional alignment
0 with outcomes