Public Reliability Record

This record shows how well past assessments aligned with what was later observed. Entries are append-only and integrity-protected for public review.

Public note

For situational awareness and research transparency. Not medical advice.

Reliability assessment

Calibration is drifting

Brier score 0.202 is above the comfort ceiling of 0.18. Recent forecasts are 20.2 percentage points away from the observed outcomes on average. 19 resolved, 86 open. Trend: improving over recent months.

Reliability score

0.202

Lower scores indicate better alignment between prior confidence and what was later observed. Technical label: Brier.

Total assessments

115

Reached an outcome

Still open

Horizon passed

Withdrawn

How often assessments at each confidence level were later borne outTechnical view: predicted probability versus observed frequency, with Wilson 95% confidence intervals.

By assessment typeBrier and directional accuracy per prediction type.

Novel Pathogen Detection

Whether a novel pathogen will be detected or confirmed in a new setting by the stated horizon.

0.202

Reliability score (Brier)

100%

Directional alignment

19 with outcomes

Reliability over timeBrier score over the resolution history.

0.250 → 0.202improving reliability