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Epi Canary — Epidemic IntelligenceEvidence-led epidemic intelligence. Source-attributed evidence.
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Public note

For situational awareness and research transparency. Not medical advice.

Sustained Transmissionactive

H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b will establish sustained cattle-to-cattle transmission in at least 3 US states by Q2 2026.

System-generated assessment. This assessment remains under review until the stated horizon or until sufficient evidence allows evaluation.

Substantial confidence

Confidence in this assessment
72%+4%

Multiple lines of evidence are aligned, though the assessment remains provisional. Based on 34 linked evidence items and assessed against Jun 30, 2026.

Confidence trend

Up 4 pts from the previous update

Assessed through Jun 30, 2026·34 linked evidence items·Tracking since Jan 15, 2026

02

How this assessment will be evaluated

The criteria the system uses to determine whether this assessment is borne out by the stated horizon.

Automated

Method

Evidence Match

The condition the system checks for when evaluating this assessment.

Minimum source quality

T1Primary Institutional

Evidence must meet or exceed this credibility tier to count toward evaluation.

Required terms

cattlesustainedtransmissionH5N1

03

Evidence quality mix

Tracking since Jan 15, 2026.

T08
T112
T29
T33
T42
▸Integrity referencesCryptographic hashes for verification

Registration

a3f8c91b2d4e5f6a7b8c9d0e1f2a3b4c5d6e7f8a9b0c1d2e3f4a5b6c7d8e9f0

07

Evidence linked to this assessment

0 linked items.

No linked evidence is available for this assessment yet.