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Epi Canary — Epidemic IntelligenceEvidence-led epidemic intelligence. Source-attributed evidence.
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Public note

For situational awareness and research transparency. Not medical advice.

Outbreak Directionresolved

SARS-CoV-2 JN.1 sublineage wastewater signals will decline below 2025 baseline in the US by March 2026.

System-generated assessment. This assessment remains under review until the stated horizon or until sufficient evidence allows evaluation.

High confidence

Confidence in this assessment
90%+5%

Evidence is strong and consistent, while still subject to revision as new data arrives. Based on 28 linked evidence items and assessed against Mar 31, 2026.

Confidence trend

Up 5 pts from the previous update

Assessed through Mar 31, 2026·28 linked evidence items·Tracking since Dec 1, 2025

02

How this assessment will be evaluated

The criteria the system uses to determine whether this assessment is borne out by the stated horizon.

Automated

Method

Threshold

The condition the system checks for when evaluating this assessment.

Minimum source quality

T1Primary Institutional

Evidence must meet or exceed this credibility tier to count toward evaluation.

Threshold

lt 100

Numeric condition required for threshold-based resolution.

Required terms

wastewaterSARS-CoV-2

Outcome

Mar 5, 2026
Observed by horizonReliability score (Brier): 0.010

CDC MMWR reported wastewater SARS-CoV-2 levels below 2025 baseline in 48 of 50 states as of epi-week 9, meeting the threshold criterion.

03

Evidence quality mix

Tracking since Dec 1, 2025.

T06
T112
T27
T32
T41
▸Integrity referencesCryptographic hashes for verification

Registration

09a1b2c3d4e5f6a7b8c9d0e1f2a3b4c5d6e7f8a9b0c1d2e3f4a5b6c7d8e9f0a1

Resolution signature

a1b2c3d4e5f6a7b8c9d0e1f2a3b4c5d6e7f8a9b0c1d2e3f4a5b6c7d8e9f0a1b2

07

Evidence linked to this assessment

0 linked items.

No linked evidence is available for this assessment yet.

T1·CDC MMWR·source document