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Public note

For situational awareness and research transparency. Not medical advice.

Novel Pathogen Detectionresolved

At least one confirmed mpox Clade IIb case linked to Singapore will be detected in Japan, South Korea, or Australia by October 2026, given Singapore's confirmation of local Clade IIb transmission (Apr 14 2026) and its role as the primary aviation hub for East Asia–Pacific travel.

System-generated assessment. This assessment remains under review until the stated horizon or until sufficient evidence allows evaluation.

Moderate confidence

Confidence in this assessment
50%

The evidence is meaningful, but there is still material uncertainty. Based on 20 linked evidence items and assessed against Oct 31, 2026.

Assessed through Oct 31, 2026·20 linked evidence items·Tracking since Apr 14, 2026

02

How this assessment will be evaluated

The criteria the system uses to determine whether this assessment is borne out by the stated horizon.

Automated

Method

Evidence Match

The condition the system checks for when evaluating this assessment.

Minimum source quality

T1Primary Institutional

Evidence must meet or exceed this credibility tier to count toward evaluation.

Required terms

confirmationtransmissionconfirmedsingapore

Outcome

Apr 14, 2026
Observed by horizonReliability score (Brier): 0.000

Resolved with score 0

T2·Unknown

03

Evidence quality mix

Tracking since Apr 14, 2026.

T16
T213
T31
▸Integrity referencesCryptographic hashes for verification

Registration

Resolution signature

06

Scope synthesis

The current analyst narrative for this scope.

Open synthesis →

Africa CDC Outbreak Brief 26 confirms multi-country Africa Clade Ib burden; MPXV female genital tract replication study reinforces multi-mode transmission plausibility for Clade Ib non-sexual spread hypotheses.

07

Evidence linked to this assessment

20 linked items.

Broader transmission of mpox due to clade Ib MPXV – Global situation. Multiple modes of transmis

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 14 tracked assessments.

T1https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2025-DON587supports
Apr 17, 2026
Broader transmission of mpox due to clade Ib MPXV – Global situation. As both MPXV clades I and

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 15 tracked assessments.

T1https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2025-DON587
supports
Apr 17, 2026
Broader transmission of mpox due to clade Ib MPXV – Global situation. The second declaration of

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 15 tracked assessments.

T1https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2025-DON587supports
Apr 17, 2026
MPOX - USA (03): (CALIFORNIA) SAN FRANCISCO, CLADE I. The CDPH is monitoring the situation and e

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 2 tracked assessments.

T2https://www.promedmail.org/?alert=8732325neutral
Apr 19, 2026
Epidemiology and phylogenomic characterization of the Clade IIb C.1 Mpox outbreak in Phnom Penh,

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 13 tracked assessments.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41575511/supports
Apr 14, 2026
Epidemiology and phylogenomic characterization of the Clade IIb C.1 Mpox outbreak in Phnom Penh,

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 13 tracked assessments.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41575511/supports
Apr 14, 2026
Epidemiology and phylogenomic characterization of the Clade IIb C.1 Mpox outbreak in Phnom Penh,

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 13 tracked assessments.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41575511/supports
Apr 14, 2026
Epidemiology and phylogenomic characterization of the Clade IIb C.1 Mpox outbreak in Phnom Penh,

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 13 tracked assessments.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41575511/supports
Apr 13, 2026
Epidemiology and phylogenomic characterization of the Clade IIb C.1 Mpox outbreak in Phnom Penh,

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 13 tracked assessments.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41575511/supports
Apr 13, 2026
Epidemiology and phylogenomic characterization of the Clade IIb C.1 Mpox outbreak in Phnom Penh,

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 13 tracked assessments.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41575511/supports
Apr 13, 2026
Broader transmission of mpox due to clade Ib MPXV – Global situation. Multiple modes of transmis

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 14 tracked assessments.

T2https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2025-DON587supports
Apr 13, 2026
Broader transmission of mpox due to clade Ib MPXV – Global situation. As both MPXV clades I and

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 15 tracked assessments.

T2https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2025-DON587supports
Apr 13, 2026
Broader transmission of mpox due to clade Ib MPXV – Global situation. The second declaration of

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 15 tracked assessments.

T2https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2025-DON587supports
Apr 13, 2026
California Clade I Mpox — signal expansion Apr 17-19 2026 (Google News RSS aggregation). Multi-o

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 2 tracked assessments.

T3https://news.google.com/rss/search?q=mpox%20cases%20in%20Californianeutral
Apr 20, 2026
Singapore Communicable Diseases Agency (CDA) — 'Two confirmed cases of locally-transmitted mpox

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 7 tracked assessments.

T1https://www.cda.gov.sg/news-and-events/two-confirmed-cases-of-locally-transmitted-mpox-clade-ib-infection/supports
Apr 20, 2026
Mpox: recombinant virus with genomic elements of clades Ib and IIb – Global situation. Both case

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 1 tracked assessment.

T1https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2026-DON595neutral
Apr 17, 2026
MPOX - GHANA (05): EPIDEMIC UPDATE. The Ghana Health Service has confirmed additional cases of m

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 12 tracked assessments.

T2https://www.promedmail.org/?alert=8732298supports
Apr 17, 2026
Singapore Communicable Diseases Agency (CDA) confirmed two cases of locally transmitted mpox Cla

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 8 tracked assessments.

T2https://www.cda.gov.sg/news-and-events/two-confirmed-cases-of-locally-transmitted-mpox-clade-ib-infection/supports
Apr 14, 2026
Mpox: recombinant virus with genomic elements of clades Ib and IIb – Global situation. The first

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 1 tracked assessment.

T1https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2026-DON595neutral
Apr 17, 2026
Pakistan Sindh Mpox Update — Apr 14 2026 (Sindh Health Department, via The Nation Pakistan, Apr

This report is recorded in the evidence trail but is not yet linked to a tracked assessment.

T2https://www.nation.com.pk/16-Apr-2026/mpox-update-25-confirmed-cases-9-deaths-reported-sindhneutral
Apr 20, 2026
Mirror replication is delayed on 2 of 3 tables. Showing last replicated data. Data may be stale.

Integrity anchor

Brier 0.210

17 resolved novel pathogen detection predictions.