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Epi Canary — Epidemic IntelligenceEvidence-led epidemic intelligence. Source-attributed evidence.
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Public note

For situational awareness and research transparency. Not medical advice.

Novel Pathogen Detectionactive

At least one Eastern Europe / Central Asia (EECA) country will release official national HIV surveillance data showing a ≥15% year-over-year increase in newly diagnosed HIV cases (2024 vs 2023 OR 2025 vs 2024), published in UNAIDS, ECDC, WHO EURO, or national MoH surveillance reports within 180 days.

System-generated assessment. This assessment remains under review until the stated horizon or until sufficient evidence allows evaluation.

Substantial confidence

Confidence in this assessment
60%

Multiple lines of evidence are aligned, though the assessment remains provisional. Based on 0 linked evidence items and assessed against P180D.

Assessed through P180D·0 linked evidence items·Tracking since Apr 18, 2026

02

How this assessment will be evaluated

The criteria the system uses to determine whether this assessment is borne out by the stated horizon.

Automated

Method

Evidence Match

The condition the system checks for when evaluating this assessment.

Minimum source quality

T1Primary Institutional

Evidence must meet or exceed this credibility tier to count toward evaluation.

Required terms

year-over-yearsurveillancediagnosedpublished

03

Evidence quality mix

Tracking since Apr 18, 2026.

▸Integrity referencesCryptographic hashes for verification

Registration

06

Scope synthesis

The current analyst narrative for this scope.

Open synthesis →

HIV/AIDS evidence pipeline at lowest coverage across all scopes this cycle; all connectors stale or failing; PEPFAR litigation and SSA program impact hypotheses remain open without new data.

No EECA national HIV surveillance release

07

Evidence linked to this assessment

0 linked items.

No linked evidence is available for this assessment yet.

Mirror replication is delayed on 1 of 3 tables. Showing last replicated data.

Integrity anchor

Brier 0.202

19 resolved novel pathogen detection predictions.