At least one PEPFAR-supported sub-Saharan African country will report a ≥10% relative increase in mother-to-child HIV transmission rate in a 2025 cohort vs 2024 baseline, published in PEPFAR Country Operational Plan data, UNICEF Global AIDS Update, UNAIDS epidemiological estimates, or peer-reviewed literature within 180 days.

System-generated assessment. This assessment remains under review until the stated horizon or until sufficient evidence allows evaluation.

Substantial confidence

Confidence in this assessment

60%

Multiple lines of evidence are aligned, though the assessment remains provisional. Based on 0 linked evidence items and assessed against P180D.

Assessed through P180D0 linked evidence itemsTracking since Apr 18, 2026

How this assessment will be evaluated

The criteria the system uses to determine whether this assessment is borne out by the stated horizon.

Automated

Method

Evidence Match

The condition the system checks for when evaluating this assessment.

Minimum source quality

T1Primary Institutional

Evidence must meet or exceed this credibility tier to count toward evaluation.

Required terms

pepfar-supportedmother-to-childepidemiologicalpeer-reviewed

Evidence quality mix

Tracking since Apr 18, 2026.

Integrity referencesCryptographic hashes for verification

Registration

Integrity anchor

Brier 0.202

19 resolved novel pathogen detection predictions.

Scope synthesis

The current analyst narrative for this scope.

Open synthesis →

HIV/AIDS evidence pipeline at lowest coverage across all scopes this cycle; all connectors stale or failing; PEPFAR litigation and SSA program impact hypotheses remain open without new data.

No PMTCT program disruption data ingested

Evidence linked to this assessment

0 linked items.

No linked evidence is available for this assessment yet.