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Viral Hemorrhagic FeversHealth
  • Overview
  • Synthesis
  • Assessments
  • Evidence

Public note

For situational awareness and research transparency. Not medical advice.

Healthactive

Viral Hemorrhagic Fevers

Open-set surveillance for viral hemorrhagic fever emergence, spillover, and outbreak expansion across filoviruses, arenaviruses, and related syndromic signals

Open assessments

6

Tracked assessments currently open in this scope.

Evidence items

202

Source-attributed evidence available to this scope.

Source feeds

0

Configured sources contributing data to this investigation.

Last activity

Apr 18, 2026

Most recent scope activity captured in the system.

01

Synthesis

The current analyst view of this scope, at increasing levels of depth.

Uganda Sudan Virus Disease outbreak declared over (Final Brief 16); Nigeria Lassa trajectory unchanged; Marburg male reproductive persistence study advances surveillance design.

Africa CDC Final Outbreak Brief 16 for Sudan Virus Disease in Uganda (visible via cross-scope signals, Apr 20) confirms the most recent filovirus spillover event in sub-Saharan Africa has ended, providing a completed-case data point relevant to the 180-day new-filovirus-spillover hypothesis. PubMed (Apr 17, 22) published a study on Marburg virus persistence in the male reproductive tract, highlighting diagnostic and surveillance gaps for sexually transmitted Marburg chains post-outbreak. Nigeria Lassa and Burundi mystery illness hypotheses are unchanged with no new sitrep data this cycle. Connector health for this scope is the best of 7 scopes (7 green, 1 amber).

02

Assessments

Open assessments being tracked inside this scope, ordered for fast review.

At least one new laboratory-confirmed filovirus spillover (Ebola species, Marburg, or Sudan virus ≥1 human case) will be reported by WHO DON or Africa CDC in sub-Saharan Africa between 2026-04-20 and 2026-10-20. Base rate: 2024-2025 saw Rwanda Marburg (Oct 2024), Uganda SVD (Jan-Apr 2025), DRC Ebola (Sep-Dec 2025), Ethiopia Marburg (Nov 2025-Jan 2026) — 4 distinct filovirus spillovers in ~14 months.</magnitude> <parameter name="key_assumption">Great Lakes/East Africa/Horn-of-Africa filovirus reservoir ecology unchanged; WHO IHR reporting functioning; Africa CDC active surveillance in Centra...

Novel Pathogen Detection·active·70%·Through 180D·
10 linked items
·Apr 22, 2026

The Uganda Sudan Virus Disease outbreak will receive an official WHO Disease Outbreak News entry within 30 days of the Africa CDC Outbreak Brief 15 (Apr 19 2026).

Novel Pathogen Detection·active·60%·Through 90D·31 linked items·Apr 22, 2026

Uganda Sudan Virus Disease outbreak (Africa CDC Outbreak Brief 15, Apr 2026) will either be declared over by WHO/Uganda MoH OR expand to ≥2 additional districts with ≥10 laboratory-confirmed cases total within 90 days.

Novel Pathogen Detection·active·60%·Through 90D·17 linked items·Apr 22, 2026

Burundi mystery illness cluster (≥5 deaths, flagged by Africa CDC/CIDRAP Apr 17 2026) will be laboratory-confirmed as a viral hemorrhagic fever agent by WHO DON or Africa CDC within 60 days.

Novel Pathogen Detection·active·50%·Through 60D·0 linked items·Apr 20, 2026

Rift Valley fever will see ≥1 new laboratory-confirmed human outbreak cluster (≥5 cases) reported in Senegal, Mauritania, Kenya, Tanzania, or Sudan between 2026-04-20 and 2026-10-20, following the Sep-Oct 2025 Senegal/Mauritania re-emergence (17 deaths Senegal, Africa CDC "comeback" flag Sep 30 2025) and known seasonal/climate-driven pattern.</magnitude> <parameter name="key_assumption">RVF outbreaks in Sahel follow heavy rainfall patterns; 2025 rains were documented as elevated. Senegal and Mauritania cross-border circulation has ongoing mosquito transmission cycle. CEPI/Oxford/Serum stock...

Novel Pathogen Detection·active·60%·Through 180D·2 linked items·Apr 20, 2026

The Burundi mystery-illness cluster (≥5 deaths, flagged by Africa CDC per CIDRAP Apr 17 2026) will be laboratory-confirmed within 30 days as either (a) a viral hemorrhagic fever (Ebola, Marburg, Sudan virus, CCHF, or RVF) OR (b) not-VHF (Lassa-negative, filovirus-negative, bacterial/food/chemical etiology). Directional forecast: NOT-VHF is more likely than VHF given typical mystery-cluster etiology distribution, but Great Lakes location (borders DRC, Rwanda, Tanzania) keeps VHF probability meaningfully elevated (~15-25%).</magnitude> <parameter name="key_assumption">Africa CDC / Burundi MoH...

Novel Pathogen Detection·active·50%·Through 30D·5 linked items·Apr 20, 2026

Benue State, Nigeria Lassa fever outbreak will cumulatively record ≥20 healthcare worker deaths (from baseline 10 as of Feb 27 2026 per Premium Times Nigeria) by Jun 20 2026, indicating continued nosocomial amplification despite MSF-supported IPC response.</magnitude> <parameter name="key_assumption">Baseline: 10 HCW deaths (Premium Times, Nigerian Observer Feb 27-Mar 3 2026), 15 HCW infections (Punch Feb 22), 5 doctors affected (Premium Times). MSF response began Apr 10-14 2026 (Tribune, Apex). IPC gaps in Benue hospitals well-documented in prior Lassa waves. HCW CFR typically 20-40% for L...

Novel Pathogen Detection·active·70%·Through 60D·0 linked items·Apr 20, 2026

Nigeria NCDC cumulative Lassa fever case count for 2026 will exceed 800 (with deaths >200) by end-Jul 2026, consistent with NCDC trajectory: 469 cases/109 deaths by Mar 17 2026 (Guardian Nigeria) escalating to 170 deaths by Apr 16 2026 (Arise News) during active peak-season transmission and Benue State outbreak.</magnitude> <parameter name="key_assumption">Lassa fever is hyperendemic in Nigeria with annual peak Jan-May; NCDC weekly sitreps and case/death counts are canonical T1 source. Current 2026 trajectory (469→after 4 weeks >600 implied by 170 deaths at CFR ~20-25%) tracks above histori...

Novel Pathogen Detection·active·80%·Through 90D·0 linked items·Apr 20, 2026

Uganda Sudan Virus Disease outbreak (Africa CDC Brief 15, Apr 2026) will include ≥1 confirmed healthcare worker case, indicating nosocomial amplification within the initial cluster.

Novel Pathogen Detection·active·60%·Through 90D·0 linked items·Apr 20, 2026

A new confirmed filovirus spillover event (Ebola, Marburg, or Sudan virus ≥1 laboratory-confirmed human case) will be reported in Central or East Africa within 180 days of the Uganda SVD closure, consistent with the ~1-2 per year regional filovirus base rate.

Novel Pathogen Detection·active·60%·Through 180D·2 linked items·Apr 19, 2026

A new confirmed VHF outbreak (Ebola, Marburg, Sudan Virus, or CCHF) with ≥3 laboratory-confirmed cases will be detected in sub-Saharan Africa within 90 days of the Uganda Sudan Virus Disease outbreak closure, consistent with endemic spillover frequency in the Great Lakes/East African bat reservoir zone.

Novel Pathogen Detection·active·60%·Through 90D·4 linked items·Apr 18, 2026

A T1 or T2 source will report a high-confidence viral hemorrhagic fever outbreak investigation with confirmed cases or deaths within 90 days.

Novel Pathogen Detection·resolved·60%·Through P90D·1 linked item·Apr 17, 2026

Evidence of zoonotic spillover or animal-linked exposure consistent with Ebola, Marburg, Lassa, CCHF, or Rift Valley fever will be reported within 180 days.

Novel Pathogen Detection·resolved·50%·Through P180D·2 linked items·Apr 17, 2026

A confirmed viral hemorrhagic fever cluster with unexplained bleeding will be reported in a new district or country within 180 days.

Novel Pathogen Detection·resolved·60%·Through P180D·0 linked items·Apr 13, 2026

03

Recent evidence

The most recent source-attributed evidence flowing into this investigation.

Diagnostic and surveillance strategies for Marburg virus persistence in the male reproductive tr

Apr 22, 2026
T2·https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41988981/·1 linked assessment

Diagnostic and surveillance strategies for Marburg virus persistence in the male reproductive tr

Apr 22, 2026
T2·https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41988981/·1 linked assessment

Technical and Scientific Products. Health Sexual and Reproductive Health Universal Health Urban

Apr 22, 2026
T2·https://www.paho.org/en/technical-and-scientific-products

Vaccination Coverage by Age 24 Months Among Children Born in 2021 and 2022 &mdash; National Immu

Apr 22, 2026
T1·https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/75/wr/mm7511a2.htm?s_cid=OS_mm7511a2_w

Vaccination Coverage by Age 24 Months Among Children Born in 2021 and 2022 &mdash; National Immu

Apr 22, 2026
T1·https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/75/wr/mm7511a2.htm?s_cid=OS_mm7511a2_w

Increases in Kratom-Related Reports to Poison Centers &mdash; National Poison Data System, Unite

Apr 22, 2026
T1·https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/75/wr/mm7511a1.htm?s_cid=OS_mm7511a1_w

Increase in Poison Center Reports Linked to Kratom-Containing Kava Products &mdash; National Poi

Apr 22, 2026
T1·https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/75/wr/mm7512a1.htm?s_cid=OS_mm7512a1_w

Increase in Poison Center Reports Linked to Kratom-Containing Kava Products &mdash; National Poi

Apr 22, 2026
T1·https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/75/wr/mm7512a1.htm?s_cid=OS_mm7512a1_w

Severe Illness Associated with Eating Mushroom-Containing Chocolate Products &mdash; United Stat

Apr 22, 2026
T1·https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/75/wr/mm7513a2.htm?s_cid=OS_mm7513a2_w

Severe Illness Associated with Eating Mushroom-Containing Chocolate Products &mdash; United Stat

Apr 22, 2026
T1·https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/75/wr/mm7513a2.htm?s_cid=OS_mm7513a2_w