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Epi Canary — Epidemic IntelligenceEvidence-led epidemic intelligence. Source-attributed evidence.
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Public note

For situational awareness and research transparency. Not medical advice.

Novel Pathogen Detectionresolved

Evidence of zoonotic spillover or animal-linked exposure consistent with Ebola, Marburg, Lassa, CCHF, or Rift Valley fever will be reported within 180 days.

System-generated assessment. This assessment remains under review until the stated horizon or until sufficient evidence allows evaluation.

Moderate confidence

Confidence in this assessment
50%

The evidence is meaningful, but there is still material uncertainty. Based on 2 linked evidence items and assessed against P180D.

Assessed through P180D·2 linked evidence items·Tracking since Apr 13, 2026

02

How this assessment will be evaluated

The criteria the system uses to determine whether this assessment is borne out by the stated horizon.

Automated

Method

Evidence Match

The condition the system checks for when evaluating this assessment.

Minimum source quality

T1Primary Institutional

Evidence must meet or exceed this credibility tier to count toward evaluation.

Required terms

animal-linkedconsistentspilloverevidence

Outcome

Apr 13, 2026
Observed by horizonReliability score (Brier): 0.214

Resolved with score 0.2142857142857143

T2·Unknown

03

Evidence quality mix

Tracking since Apr 13, 2026.

T22
▸Integrity referencesCryptographic hashes for verification

Registration

Resolution signature

06

Scope synthesis

The current analyst narrative for this scope.

Open synthesis →

Uganda Sudan Virus Disease outbreak declared over (Final Brief 16, Apr 20), constituting a qualifying filovirus spillover event; Nigeria Lassa and Burundi mystery illness hypotheses unchanged pending sitrep updates.

07

Evidence linked to this assessment

2 linked items.

Accuracy of rapid and near-patient diagnostics for detection of rift valley fever and Crimean-Co

This report is recorded in the evidence trail but is not yet linked to a tracked assessment.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41850035/neutral
Apr 17, 2026
Accuracy of rapid and near-patient diagnostics for detection of rift valley fever and Crimean-Co

This report is recorded in the evidence trail but is not yet linked to a tracked assessment.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41850035/
neutral
Apr 14, 2026

Integrity anchor

Brier 0.202

19 resolved novel pathogen detection predictions.