Marburg virus disease - Rwanda. As of 19 December 2024, 66 confirmed cases,15 deaths with a case
Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 5 tracked assessments.
0 cases · 15 deaths · 0 samples
Public note
For situational awareness and research transparency. Not medical advice.
System-generated assessment. This assessment remains under review until the stated horizon or until sufficient evidence allows evaluation.
Moderate confidence
The evidence is meaningful, but there is still material uncertainty. Based on 5 linked evidence items and assessed against 30D.
02
The criteria the system uses to determine whether this assessment is borne out by the stated horizon.
Method
The condition the system checks for when evaluating this assessment.
Minimum source quality
Evidence must meet or exceed this credibility tier to count toward evaluation.
Required terms
laboratory-confirmedfilovirus-negativemystery-illnessmystery-cluster03
Tracking since Apr 20, 2026.
06
The current analyst narrative for this scope.
Uganda Sudan Virus Disease outbreak declared over (Final Brief 16, Apr 20), constituting a qualifying filovirus spillover event; Nigeria Lassa and Burundi mystery illness hypotheses unchanged pending sitrep updates.
No Burundi lab result yet; 5 days post-flagging is within expected investigation timeline
07
5 linked items.
Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 5 tracked assessments.
0 cases · 15 deaths · 0 samples
Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 4 tracked assessments.
Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 5 tracked assessments.
This report is recorded in the evidence trail but is not yet linked to a tracked assessment.
This report is recorded in the evidence trail but is not yet linked to a tracked assessment.
Integrity anchor
Brier 0.202
19 resolved novel pathogen detection predictions.