Uganda Sudan Virus Disease outbreak (Africa CDC Outbreak Brief 15, Apr 2026) will either be declared over by WHO/Uganda MoH OR expand to ≥2 additional districts with ≥10 laboratory-confirmed cases total within 90 days.

System-generated assessment. This assessment remains under review until the stated horizon or until sufficient evidence allows evaluation.

Substantial confidence

Confidence in this assessment

60%

Multiple lines of evidence are aligned, though the assessment remains provisional. Based on 17 linked evidence items and assessed against 90D.

Assessed through 90D17 linked evidence itemsTracking since Apr 19, 2026

How this assessment will be evaluated

The criteria the system uses to determine whether this assessment is borne out by the stated horizon.

Automated

Method

Evidence Match

The condition the system checks for when evaluating this assessment.

Minimum source quality

T1Primary Institutional

Evidence must meet or exceed this credibility tier to count toward evaluation.

Required terms

laboratory-confirmedadditionaldistrictsoutbreak

Evidence quality mix

Tracking since Apr 19, 2026.

T117

Integrity referencesCryptographic hashes for verification

Registration

Integrity anchor

Brier 0.202

19 resolved novel pathogen detection predictions.

Scope synthesis

The current analyst narrative for this scope.

Open synthesis →

Uganda Sudan Virus Disease outbreak declared over (Final Brief 16); Nigeria Lassa trajectory unchanged; Marburg male reproductive persistence study advances surveillance design.

Evidence linked to this assessment

17 linked items.

Marburg virus disease - Rwanda. The outbreak had been declared on 27 September 2024.

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 5 tracked assessments.

T1https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2024-DON548supports

Apr 17, 2026

Outbreak Brief 15: Sudan Virus Disease in Uganda &#8211

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 2 tracked assessments.

T1https://africacdc.org/disease-outbreak/outbreak-brief-15-sudan-virus-disease-in-uganda/