Assessments
Time-bound predictions under active review, including assessments that reached horizon and still need a final human resolution.
Time-bound predictions under active review, including assessments that reached horizon and still need a final human resolution.
Public note
For situational awareness and research transparency. Not medical advice.
A US federal court (district, appellate, or Supreme Court) will issue at least one substantive ruling (merits opinion, preliminary injunction, or contempt order) on the lawfulness of Trump-administration impoundment or conditional restriction of PEPFAR-appropriated funds within 180 days.
The Global Fund 8th Replenishment (pledging cycle closing Q4 2026) will secure ≥20% less than the ~$18B ask (i.e., <$14.4B) at the Johannesburg pledging conference, measured at official conference close or by interim ≥20% downward revision of the target by GF Board within 180 days.
The Penobscot County, Maine HIV outbreak (40 confirmed cases Mar 20 2026, still growing Apr 7) will be officially recognized as a CDC HIV molecular cluster with ≥75 confirmed cases reported by Maine DHHS or CDC within 90 days.
At least one published case of incident (breakthrough) HIV-1 infection in an individual receiving twice-yearly lenacapavir PrEP per protocol, with documented capsid-gene resistance-associated mutation (Q67H/K, N74D, M66I, K70N, T107N/A, or similar), will be reported within 180 days of LEN PrEP rollout expansion (post-FDA approval Jun 2025, PEPFAR+GF investment Apr 2026).
At least one published cluster (≥10 patients, single country/cohort) of TLD (tenofovir-lamivudine-dolutegravir) virological failure with emergent major INSTI resistance mutations (R263K, G118R, G140S/Q148H/R/K, N155H, or Y143C/R/H) will be reported from a sub-Saharan African cohort within 180 days.
At least one additional distinct pediatric HIV cluster (≥10 seroconversions, children <15, different facility than Larkana/Ratodero 2019 and the Apr 2026 Punjab hospital) will be publicly reported in Pakistan within 90 days, attributed to unsafe-injection or blood-product iatrogenic transmission.
A new HIV transmission cluster with molecular surveillance evidence will be reported in a new geography within 180 days.
A circulating recombinant form or rapidly expanding HIV subtype cluster with outbreak-like transmission dynamics will be reported within 180 days.
A public report will identify transmitted HIV drug resistance or antiretroviral treatment failure in a growing cluster within 180 days.
Mpox Clade IIb C.1 community transmission in Phnom Penh will be documented to involve a heterosexual or mixed-route transmission cluster by July 2026, based on phylogenomic confirmation of community spread and newly published MPXV replication efficiency in vaginal and ectocervical epithelial tissue.
Female sex worker involvement will be documented in the Phnom Penh Clade IIb C.1 outbreak by September 2026, consistent with MPXV replication efficiency in vaginal and ectocervical tissue and the mixed-network structure of sex worker outreach programs in Cambodia.
Field-circulating H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b isolates will be confirmed via published receptor binding specificity assay to demonstrate measurable human (α-2,6 sialic acid) receptor affinity alongside avian (α-2,3) affinity by Q3 2026, based on ongoing receptor binding specificity analyses of current strains.
A T1 or T2 source will report a high-confidence viral hemorrhagic fever outbreak investigation with confirmed cases or deaths within 90 days.
Evidence of zoonotic spillover or animal-linked exposure consistent with Ebola, Marburg, Lassa, CCHF, or Rift Valley fever will be reported within 180 days.
Pakistan MoH will issue a national MPXV public health advisory or declare a national-level response (beyond provincial Sindh) within 30 days (by May 15 2026), triggered by the escalation from 7 infant deaths in Khairpur to 9 deaths and 25 cases across multiple Sindh districts as of April 15 2026.
WHO will issue a Disease Outbreak News (DON) specifically addressing Clade IIb community transmission in Southeast Asia (Cambodia + Singapore dual-node) by June 30, 2026, given confirmed community chains in two high-connectivity countries within the same region and the active global PHEIC context.
At least one imported Clade IIb C.1 case linked to Cambodia will be confirmed in Thailand or Vietnam by July 31 2026, based on phylogenomic documentation of sustained community transmission in Phnom Penh and high-frequency air travel routes connecting Cambodia to these countries.
Age- and diet-driven gut antibiotic resistome dynamics in food-producing animals represent an undercharacterized One Health AMR amplification pathway; at least one prospective cohort or longitudinal study will demonstrate a statistically significant link between food-producing animal resistome composition and community-onset AMR carriage rates in adjacent human populations by end of 2027.
Tunnel validation 2026-04-14T05:34Z - safe to ignore
At least one XDR Shigella case (resistant to azithromycin + fluoroquinolones + 3GC simultaneously) linked to the US Apr 2026 cluster will be confirmed in a European or Southeast Asian country by October 2026, consistent with the 2022–2023 pattern where US ceftriaxone-resistant Shigella reached international circulation within 6 months.
A confirmed viral hemorrhagic fever cluster with unexplained bleeding will be reported in a new district or country within 180 days.
H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b will be confirmed in dairy cattle in at least 8 US states by 2026-07-01, based on the current trajectory of 4 confirmed states as of April 2026.
Sub-Saharan Africa AMR burden is systematically underestimated in GLASS-derived global models due to structural surveillance gaps; at least one major carbapenem-resistant outbreak cluster in the region will be documented retrospectively as having circulated undetected for >6 months.
Autochthonous dengue transmission will be confirmed in at least 2 Southern European countries during the July–October 2026 transmission season.
NDM-producing Enterobacterales prevalence in European ICUs will exceed 5% in EARS-Net 2026 data.