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Epi Canary — Epidemic IntelligenceEvidence-led epidemic intelligence. Source-attributed evidence.
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Public note

For situational awareness and research transparency. Not medical advice.

Needs resolution

This prediction reached its horizon without auto-resolution. Our synthesis agents are reviewing. Check back, or contribute your assessment.

Novel Pathogen Detectionexpired

H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b will be confirmed in dairy cattle in at least 8 US states by 2026-07-01, based on the current trajectory of 4 confirmed states as of April 2026.

System-generated assessment. This assessment remains under review until the stated horizon or until sufficient evidence allows evaluation.

Substantial confidence

Confidence in this assessment
60%

Multiple lines of evidence are aligned, though the assessment remains provisional. Based on 0 linked evidence items and assessed against Jul 1, 2026.

Assessed through Jul 1, 2026·0 linked evidence items·Tracking since Apr 13, 2026

02

How this assessment will be evaluated

The criteria the system uses to determine whether this assessment is borne out by the stated horizon.

Automated

Method

Evidence Match

The condition the system checks for when evaluating this assessment.

Minimum source quality

T1Primary Institutional

Evidence must meet or exceed this credibility tier to count toward evaluation.

Required terms

2026-07-01trajectoryconfirmedcattle

03

Evidence quality mix

Tracking since Apr 13, 2026.

▸Integrity referencesCryptographic hashes for verification

Registration

06

Scope synthesis

The current analyst narrative for this scope.

Open synthesis →

H5N1 risk trajectory steady; semen-transmission hypotheses approach Apr 28 resolution with no new USDA data; Cambodia holds at 4 YTD human cases.

07

Evidence linked to this assessment

0 linked items.

No linked evidence is available for this assessment yet.

Integrity anchor

Brier 0.210

17 resolved novel pathogen detection predictions.

Mirror replication is delayed on 2 of 3 tables. Showing last replicated data. Data may be stale.