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Public note

For situational awareness and research transparency. Not medical advice.

Needs resolution

This prediction reached its horizon without auto-resolution. Our synthesis agents are reviewing. Check back, or contribute your assessment.

Novel Pathogen Detectionexpired

At least one XDR Shigella case with genomic linkage to the US April 2026 emergence cluster will be confirmed in Australia, Canada, or Japan within 120 days (by August 13 2026), based on high-frequency MSM travel networks connecting these countries to the US, and the historical 2022-2023 pattern where drug-resistant Shigella reached high-income Pacific Rim countries within 8 months of initial US detection.

System-generated assessment. This assessment remains under review until the stated horizon or until sufficient evidence allows evaluation.

Moderate confidence

Confidence in this assessment
40%

The evidence is meaningful, but there is still material uncertainty. Based on 69 linked evidence items and assessed against 120D.

Assessed through 120D·69 linked evidence items·Tracking since Apr 15, 2026

02

How this assessment will be evaluated

The criteria the system uses to determine whether this assessment is borne out by the stated horizon.

Automated

Method

Evidence Match

The condition the system checks for when evaluating this assessment.

Minimum source quality

T1Primary Institutional

Evidence must meet or exceed this credibility tier to count toward evaluation.

Required terms

high-frequencydrug-resistanthigh-incomeconnecting

03

Evidence quality mix

Tracking since Apr 15, 2026.

T020
T130
T219
▸Integrity referencesCryptographic hashes for verification

Registration

06

Scope synthesis

The current analyst narrative for this scope.

Open synthesis →

AMR evidence cycle is dry; PubMed stale and multiple connectors at staleness >1.0; two hypotheses approach Apr 27 resolution with no incoming data.

07

Evidence linked to this assessment

69 linked items.

Emergence of Extensively Drug-Resistant Shigellosis — United States, 2011–2023. case

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 5 tracked assessments.

10 cases · 16,788 samples

T1https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/75/wr/mm7513a1.htm?s_cid=OS_mm7513a1_wsupports
Apr 22, 2026
Emergence of Extensively Drug-Resistant Shigellosis — United States, 2011–2023. case

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 5 tracked assessments.

10 cases · 16,788 samples

T1https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/75/wr/mm7513a1.htm?s_cid=OS_mm7513a1_w
supports
Apr 22, 2026
Submit sequence and phenotype data related to AMR. Pathogens are also being analyzed for antimic

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 5 tracked assessments.

T0https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pathogens/submitsupports
Apr 21, 2026
Submit sequence and phenotype data related to AMR. Currently four major foodborne pathogens (Cam

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 5 tracked assessments.

T0https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pathogens/submitsupports
Apr 21, 2026
Submit sequence and phenotype data related to AMR. If you sequenced your isolates using another

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 5 tracked assessments.

T0https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pathogens/submitsupports
Apr 21, 2026
Download AMRFinderPlus to identify AMR genes. To identify AMR genes from assembled sequence we r

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 5 tracked assessments.

T0https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pathogens/antimicrobial-resistance/AMRFinder/supports
Apr 21, 2026
Submit sequence and phenotype data related to AMR. Pathogens are also being analyzed for antimic

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 5 tracked assessments.

T0https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pathogens/submitsupports
Apr 21, 2026
Submit sequence and phenotype data related to AMR. Currently four major foodborne pathogens (Cam

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 5 tracked assessments.

T0https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pathogens/submitsupports
Apr 21, 2026
Submit sequence and phenotype data related to AMR. If you sequenced your isolates using another

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 5 tracked assessments.

T0https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pathogens/submitsupports
Apr 21, 2026
Download AMRFinderPlus to identify AMR genes. To identify AMR genes from assembled sequence we r

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 5 tracked assessments.

T0https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pathogens/antimicrobial-resistance/AMRFinder/supports
Apr 21, 2026
Submit sequence and phenotype data related to AMR. Pathogens are also being analyzed for antimic

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 5 tracked assessments.

T0https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pathogens/submitsupports
Apr 19, 2026
Submit sequence and phenotype data related to AMR. Currently four major foodborne pathogens (Cam

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 5 tracked assessments.

T0https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pathogens/submitsupports
Apr 19, 2026
Submit sequence and phenotype data related to AMR. If you sequenced your isolates using another

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 5 tracked assessments.

T0https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pathogens/submitsupports
Apr 19, 2026
Download AMRFinderPlus to identify AMR genes. To identify AMR genes from assembled sequence we r

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 5 tracked assessments.

T0https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pathogens/antimicrobial-resistance/AMRFinder/supports
Apr 19, 2026
Submit sequence and phenotype data related to AMR. Pathogens are also being analyzed for antimic

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 5 tracked assessments.

T0https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pathogens/submitsupports
Apr 18, 2026
Submit sequence and phenotype data related to AMR. Currently four major foodborne pathogens (Cam

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 5 tracked assessments.

T0https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pathogens/submitsupports
Apr 18, 2026
Submit sequence and phenotype data related to AMR. If you sequenced your isolates using another

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 5 tracked assessments.

T0https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pathogens/submitsupports
Apr 18, 2026
Download AMRFinderPlus to identify AMR genes. To identify AMR genes from assembled sequence we r

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 5 tracked assessments.

T0https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pathogens/antimicrobial-resistance/AMRFinder/supports
Apr 18, 2026
Antimicrobial resistance (AMR). A more worrying problem is when some bacteria, that are normally

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 5 tracked assessments.

0 cases

T1https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/antimicrobial-resistancesupports
Apr 21, 2026
Antimicrobial resistance (AMR). Some bacteria are naturally resistant to certain antibiotics (in

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 5 tracked assessments.

0 cases

T1https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/antimicrobial-resistancesupports
Apr 21, 2026
Antimicrobial resistance (AMR). Bacteria have antibiotic resistance when specific antibiotics ha

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 5 tracked assessments.

0 cases

T1https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/antimicrobial-resistancesupports
Apr 21, 2026
Antimicrobial resistance (AMR). A more worrying problem is when some bacteria, that are normally

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 5 tracked assessments.

0 cases

T1https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/antimicrobial-resistancesupports
Apr 21, 2026
Antimicrobial resistance (AMR). Some bacteria are naturally resistant to certain antibiotics (in

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 5 tracked assessments.

0 cases

T1https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/antimicrobial-resistancesupports
Apr 21, 2026
Antimicrobial resistance (AMR). Bacteria have antibiotic resistance when specific antibiotics ha

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 5 tracked assessments.

0 cases

T1https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/antimicrobial-resistancesupports
Apr 21, 2026
Global Antimicrobial Resistance and Use Surveillance System (GLASS). Coronavirus disease (COVID-

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 7 tracked assessments.

T1https://www.who.int/initiatives/glasssupports
Apr 20, 2026
Global Antimicrobial Resistance and Use Surveillance System (GLASS). Newsroom Newsroom News rele

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 7 tracked assessments.

T1https://www.who.int/initiatives/glasssupports
Apr 20, 2026
Global Antimicrobial Resistance and Use Surveillance System (GLASS)&#160

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 7 tracked assessments.

T1https://www.who.int/initiatives/glasssupports
Apr 20, 2026
Emergence of Extensively Drug-Resistant Shigellosis — United States, 2011–2023. case

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 5 tracked assessments.

T1https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/75/wr/mm7513a1.htm?s_cid=OS_mm7513a1_wsupports
Apr 20, 2026
Global Antimicrobial Resistance and Use Surveillance System (GLASS). Coronavirus disease (COVID-

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 7 tracked assessments.

T1https://www.who.int/initiatives/glasssupports
Apr 19, 2026
Global Antimicrobial Resistance and Use Surveillance System (GLASS). Newsroom Newsroom News rele

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 7 tracked assessments.

T1https://www.who.int/initiatives/glasssupports
Apr 19, 2026
Global Antimicrobial Resistance and Use Surveillance System (GLASS)&#160

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 7 tracked assessments.

T1https://www.who.int/initiatives/glasssupports
Apr 19, 2026
Antimicrobial resistance (AMR). A more worrying problem is when some bacteria, that are normally

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 5 tracked assessments.

T1https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/antimicrobial-resistancesupports
Apr 19, 2026
Antimicrobial resistance (AMR). Some bacteria are naturally resistant to certain antibiotics (in

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 5 tracked assessments.

T1https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/antimicrobial-resistancesupports
Apr 19, 2026
Antimicrobial resistance (AMR). Bacteria have antibiotic resistance when specific antibiotics ha

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 5 tracked assessments.

T1https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/antimicrobial-resistancesupports
Apr 19, 2026
Emergence of Extensively Drug-Resistant Shigellosis — United States, 2011–2023. case

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 5 tracked assessments.

T1https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/75/wr/mm7513a1.htm?s_cid=OS_mm7513a1_wsupports
Apr 19, 2026
Emergence of Extensively Drug-Resistant Shigellosis — United States, 2011–2023. case

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 5 tracked assessments.

T1https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/75/wr/mm7513a1.htm?s_cid=OS_mm7513a1_wsupports
Apr 19, 2026
Global Antimicrobial Resistance and Use Surveillance System (GLASS). Coronavirus disease (COVID-

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 7 tracked assessments.

T1https://www.who.int/initiatives/glasssupports
Apr 18, 2026
Global Antimicrobial Resistance and Use Surveillance System (GLASS). Newsroom Newsroom News rele

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 7 tracked assessments.

T1https://www.who.int/initiatives/glasssupports
Apr 18, 2026
Global Antimicrobial Resistance and Use Surveillance System (GLASS)&#160

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 7 tracked assessments.

T1https://www.who.int/initiatives/glasssupports
Apr 18, 2026
Antimicrobial resistance (AMR). A more worrying problem is when some bacteria, that are normally

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 5 tracked assessments.

T1https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/antimicrobial-resistancesupports
Apr 18, 2026
Antimicrobial resistance (AMR). Some bacteria are naturally resistant to certain antibiotics (in

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 5 tracked assessments.

T1https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/antimicrobial-resistancesupports
Apr 18, 2026
Antimicrobial resistance (AMR). Bacteria have antibiotic resistance when specific antibiotics ha

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 5 tracked assessments.

T1https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/antimicrobial-resistancesupports
Apr 18, 2026
Emergence of Extensively Drug-Resistant Shigellosis — United States, 2011–2023. case

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 5 tracked assessments.

T1https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/75/wr/mm7513a1.htm?s_cid=OS_mm7513a1_wsupports
Apr 18, 2026
Global Antimicrobial Resistance and Use Surveillance System (GLASS). Coronavirus disease (COVID-

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 7 tracked assessments.

T1https://www.who.int/initiatives/glasssupports
Apr 17, 2026
Global Antimicrobial Resistance and Use Surveillance System (GLASS). Newsroom Newsroom News rele

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 7 tracked assessments.

T1https://www.who.int/initiatives/glasssupports
Apr 17, 2026
Global Antimicrobial Resistance and Use Surveillance System (GLASS)&#160

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 7 tracked assessments.

T1https://www.who.int/initiatives/glasssupports
Apr 17, 2026
XDR SHIGELLA US EMERGENCE — CDC MMWR APRIL 2026 Title: "Emergence of Extensively Drug-Resistant

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 13 tracked assessments.

T2https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/75/wr/mm7515a1.htmsupports
Apr 20, 2026
Shigellosis: USA, increasing incidence, antimicrobial resistance, 2023. The CDC is monitoring th

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 6 tracked assessments.

T2https://www.promedmail.org/?alert=8732316supports
Apr 20, 2026
Shigellosis: USA, increasing incidence, antimicrobial resistance, 2023. The infection spreads ea

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 6 tracked assessments.

T2https://www.promedmail.org/?alert=8732316supports
Apr 20, 2026
Shigellosis: USA, increasing incidence, antimicrobial resistance, 2023. This resistant strain is

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 6 tracked assessments.

T2https://www.promedmail.org/?alert=8732316supports
Apr 20, 2026
Shigellosis: USA, increasing incidence, antimicrobial resistance, 2023. The CDC has issued an al

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 6 tracked assessments.

T2https://www.promedmail.org/?alert=8732316supports
Apr 20, 2026
European Antimicrobial Resistance Surveillance Network (EARS-Net). Country Participating institu

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 7 tracked assessments.

T2https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/about-us/networks/disease-networks-and-laboratory-networks/ears-net-datasupports
Apr 14, 2026
European Antimicrobial Resistance Surveillance Network (EARS-Net). The objectives of EARS-Net ar

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 7 tracked assessments.

T2https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/about-us/networks/disease-networks-and-laboratory-networks/ears-net-datasupports
Apr 14, 2026
European Antimicrobial Resistance Surveillance Network (EARS-Net). ECDC Surveillance Atlas of In

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 7 tracked assessments.

T2https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/about-us/networks/disease-networks-and-laboratory-networks/ears-net-datasupports
Apr 14, 2026
Global Antimicrobial Resistance and Use Surveillance System (GLASS). Coronavirus disease (COVID-

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 7 tracked assessments.

T2https://www.who.int/initiatives/glasssupports
Apr 14, 2026
Global Antimicrobial Resistance and Use Surveillance System (GLASS). Newsroom Newsroom News rele

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 7 tracked assessments.

T2https://www.who.int/initiatives/glasssupports
Apr 14, 2026
Global Antimicrobial Resistance and Use Surveillance System (GLASS)&#160

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 7 tracked assessments.

T2https://www.who.int/initiatives/glasssupports
Apr 14, 2026
Global Antimicrobial Resistance and Use Surveillance System (GLASS). In 2015, WHO Member States

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 7 tracked assessments.

T2https://www.who.int/initiatives/glasssupports
Apr 13, 2026
Global Antimicrobial Resistance and Use Surveillance System (GLASS) Antimicrobial resistance (AM

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 7 tracked assessments.

T2https://www.who.int/initiatives/glasssupports
Apr 13, 2026
European Antimicrobial Resistance Surveillance Network (EARS-Net). EARS-Net is based on routine

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 7 tracked assessments.

T2https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/about-us/networks/disease-networks-and-laboratory-networks/ears-net-datasupports
Apr 13, 2026
Global Antimicrobial Resistance and Use Surveillance System (GLASS). Global Antimicrobial Resist

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 7 tracked assessments.

T2https://www.who.int/initiatives/glasssupports
Apr 13, 2026
Download AMRFinderPlus to identify AMR genes. NCBI has made AMRFinderPlus software and databases

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 5 tracked assessments.

T0https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pathogens/antimicrobial-resistance/AMRFinder/supports
Apr 21, 2026
Download AMRFinderPlus to identify AMR genes. NCBI has made AMRFinderPlus software and databases

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 5 tracked assessments.

T0https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pathogens/antimicrobial-resistance/AMRFinder/supports
Apr 21, 2026
Download AMRFinderPlus to identify AMR genes. NCBI has made AMRFinderPlus software and databases

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 5 tracked assessments.

T0https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pathogens/antimicrobial-resistance/AMRFinder/supports
Apr 19, 2026
Download AMRFinderPlus to identify AMR genes. NCBI has made AMRFinderPlus software and databases

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 5 tracked assessments.

T0https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pathogens/antimicrobial-resistance/AMRFinder/supports
Apr 18, 2026
WHO AMR Surveillance CC Network. WHO AMR Surveillance CC Network

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 8 tracked assessments.

T2https://www.who.int/initiatives/glass/networksupports
Apr 13, 2026
2026 WHO GLOBAL ACTION PLAN ON AMR — GOVERNANCE EVALUATION Title: "Global Action Plan on Antimi

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 5 tracked assessments.

T2https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/2026-global-action-plan-evaluationsupports
Apr 20, 2026
WHO GLASS 2025 ANNUAL REPORT — KEY FINDINGS (AMR GLOBAL TIMESERIES) Title: WHO Global Antimicro

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 5 tracked assessments.

T2https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789240102743supports
Apr 20, 2026
Empowering communities against AMR: Evaluating the one health-based antibiotic-wise village (SAJ

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 5 tracked assessments.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41665178/supports
Apr 13, 2026

Integrity anchor

Brier 0.202

19 resolved novel pathogen detection predictions.