Key findings
No AMR-specific evidence ingested this cycle. ECDC EARS-Net last ran Apr 21 (stale); PubMed at 14% ok ratio and timing out; Africa CDC failing. Two short-horizon hypotheses — XDR Shigella proportion (resolves Apr 27) and ceftriaxone-resistant gonorrhea US cluster (resolves Apr 27) — are approaching resolution with no evidence to inform them. C. auris expansion (conf 7) and hospital-onset AMR persistence above baseline (conf 7) remain the primary high-conviction bets pending CDC annual reporting.
Technical analysis
ECDC EARS-Net (last run Apr 21, staleness ratio 1.168) provided a generic scientific publications list — no specific AMR resistance rate data. CDC MMWR returned off-topic content (kratom, childhood vaccination). ProMED items were also off-topic (foodborne illness Vietnam). GLASS, NCBI-AMR, and PAHO are all stale at staleness >1.0. Africa CDC is failing (pending). WHO DON returned no items.
This is the weakest coverage cycle since scope launch. The absence of PubMed content (0 items, timeout errors) is especially impactful for AMR which depends heavily on literature for novel resistance gene signals.
Apr 27 resolutions are watch items. Both hyp:amr:2026-12-31:aabba5bd33 (XDR Shigella proportion) and hyp:amr:2027-06-30:6bf8ee55bf (ceftriaxone-resistant gonorrhea cluster) resolve Apr 27. These were created Apr 20 with 7-day horizons — likely designed to be resolved by PulseNet or MMWR data that has not arrived in the evidence stream. If no data arrives before Apr 27, resolution will default to ambiguous/no-data.
Full appendix
C. auris expansion (hyp:amr:2026-12-31:5145e6c67c, conf 7): CDC trajectory from 7,700+ cases through 2025 toward ≥12,000 by end 2026. No new CDC data this cycle. Annual AR Threats Report timing is the key resolution pathway.
Hospital-onset AMR above 2019 baseline (hyp:amr:2026-12-31:ca0f555387, conf 7): CDC 2026 AR Threats Report (electronic release) is the resolution event. No indication of release date.
XDR Shigella proportion (hyp:amr:2026-12-31:aabba5bd33, conf 5): Resolves Apr 27. LA novel XDR S. sonnei strain (CIDRAP Jan 2026) is the key event. PulseNet 2024-2026 data has not entered the evidence stream.
Ceftriaxone-resistant gonorrhea (hyp:amr:2027-06-30:6bf8ee55bf, conf 5): Resolves Apr 27. No US cluster report visible in any connector output.
ARG neonatal vertical transfer (hyp:amr:2027-12-31:d09a68ed8d, conf 4): Long-horizon research hypothesis. No prospective cohort study published in this cycle.
XDR Shigella nosocomial (hyp:amr:2026-12-31:f939aac224, conf 4): No healthcare-associated cluster report this cycle.
Calibration note: Mid-confidence accuracy is 0.0 (2 resolved), indicating possible systematic overconfidence in 4-6 range for this scope. Consider downward pressure on new mid-confidence AMR hypotheses.