HIV/AIDS Surveillance

An 8th (or subsequent numbered) published case of sustained HIV-1 remission (≥12 months viral suppression off ART after analytic treatment interruption) will be reported in a peer-reviewed journal or a CROI/IAS conference abstract within 180 days, extending the series following the Dec 2025 Nature paper on heterozygous CCR5Δ32 stem-cell-transplant remission.

At least one Eastern Europe / Central Asia (EECA) country will release official national HIV surveillance data showing a ≥15% year-over-year increase in newly diagnosed HIV cases (2024 vs 2023 OR 2025 vs 2024), published in UNAIDS, ECDC, WHO EURO, or national MoH surveillance reports within 180 days.

At least one PEPFAR-supported sub-Saharan African country will report a ≥10% relative increase in mother-to-child HIV transmission rate in a 2025 cohort vs 2024 baseline, published in PEPFAR Country Operational Plan data, UNICEF Global AIDS Update, UNAIDS epidemiological estimates, or peer-reviewed literature within 180 days.

A US federal court (district, appellate, or Supreme Court) will issue at least one substantive ruling (merits opinion, preliminary injunction, or contempt order) on the lawfulness of Trump-administration impoundment or conditional restriction of PEPFAR-appropriated funds within 180 days.

The Global Fund 8th Replenishment (pledging cycle closing Q4 2026) will secure ≥20% less than the ~$18B ask (i.e., <$14.4B) at the Johannesburg pledging conference, measured at official conference close or by interim ≥20% downward revision of the target by GF Board within 180 days.

The Penobscot County, Maine HIV outbreak (40 confirmed cases Mar 20 2026, still growing Apr 7) will be officially recognized as a CDC HIV molecular cluster with ≥75 confirmed cases reported by Maine DHHS or CDC within 90 days.

At least one published case of incident (breakthrough) HIV-1 infection in an individual receiving twice-yearly lenacapavir PrEP per protocol, with documented capsid-gene resistance-associated mutation (Q67H/K, N74D, M66I, K70N, T107N/A, or similar), will be reported within 180 days of LEN PrEP rollout expansion (post-FDA approval Jun 2025, PEPFAR+GF investment Apr 2026).

At least one published cluster (≥10 patients, single country/cohort) of TLD (tenofovir-lamivudine-dolutegravir) virological failure with emergent major INSTI resistance mutations (R263K, G118R, G140S/Q148H/R/K, N155H, or Y143C/R/H) will be reported from a sub-Saharan African cohort within 180 days.

At least one additional distinct pediatric HIV cluster (≥10 seroconversions, children <15, different facility than Larkana/Ratodero 2019 and the Apr 2026 Punjab hospital) will be publicly reported in Pakistan within 90 days, attributed to unsafe-injection or blood-product iatrogenic transmission.

A new HIV transmission cluster with molecular surveillance evidence will be reported in a new geography within 180 days.

A circulating recombinant form or rapidly expanding HIV subtype cluster with outbreak-like transmission dynamics will be reported within 180 days.

A public report will identify transmitted HIV drug resistance or antiretroviral treatment failure in a growing cluster within 180 days.