Assessments
Time-bound predictions under active review, including assessments that reached horizon and still need a final human resolution.
Time-bound predictions under active review, including assessments that reached horizon and still need a final human resolution.
Public note
For situational awareness and research transparency. Not medical advice.
Mpox Clade IIb C.1 community transmission in Phnom Penh will be documented to involve a heterosexual or mixed-route transmission cluster by July 2026, based on phylogenomic confirmation of community spread and newly published MPXV replication efficiency in vaginal and ectocervical epithelial tissue.
Female sex worker involvement will be documented in the Phnom Penh Clade IIb C.1 outbreak by September 2026, consistent with MPXV replication efficiency in vaginal and ectocervical tissue and the mixed-network structure of sex worker outreach programs in Cambodia.
Field-circulating H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b isolates will be confirmed via published receptor binding specificity assay to demonstrate measurable human (α-2,6 sialic acid) receptor affinity alongside avian (α-2,3) affinity by Q3 2026, based on ongoing receptor binding specificity analyses of current strains.
A T1 or T2 source will report a high-confidence viral hemorrhagic fever outbreak investigation with confirmed cases or deaths within 90 days.
Evidence of zoonotic spillover or animal-linked exposure consistent with Ebola, Marburg, Lassa, CCHF, or Rift Valley fever will be reported within 180 days.
Pakistan MoH will issue a national MPXV public health advisory or declare a national-level response (beyond provincial Sindh) within 30 days (by May 15 2026), triggered by the escalation from 7 infant deaths in Khairpur to 9 deaths and 25 cases across multiple Sindh districts as of April 15 2026.
WHO will issue a Disease Outbreak News (DON) specifically addressing Clade IIb community transmission in Southeast Asia (Cambodia + Singapore dual-node) by June 30, 2026, given confirmed community chains in two high-connectivity countries within the same region and the active global PHEIC context.
At least one imported Clade IIb C.1 case linked to Cambodia will be confirmed in Thailand or Vietnam by July 31 2026, based on phylogenomic documentation of sustained community transmission in Phnom Penh and high-frequency air travel routes connecting Cambodia to these countries.
Age- and diet-driven gut antibiotic resistome dynamics in food-producing animals represent an undercharacterized One Health AMR amplification pathway; at least one prospective cohort or longitudinal study will demonstrate a statistically significant link between food-producing animal resistome composition and community-onset AMR carriage rates in adjacent human populations by end of 2027.
Tunnel validation 2026-04-14T05:34Z - safe to ignore
At least one XDR Shigella case (resistant to azithromycin + fluoroquinolones + 3GC simultaneously) linked to the US Apr 2026 cluster will be confirmed in a European or Southeast Asian country by October 2026, consistent with the 2022–2023 pattern where US ceftriaxone-resistant Shigella reached international circulation within 6 months.
A confirmed viral hemorrhagic fever cluster with unexplained bleeding will be reported in a new district or country within 180 days.
H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b will be confirmed in dairy cattle in at least 8 US states by 2026-07-01, based on the current trajectory of 4 confirmed states as of April 2026.
Sub-Saharan Africa AMR burden is systematically underestimated in GLASS-derived global models due to structural surveillance gaps; at least one major carbapenem-resistant outbreak cluster in the region will be documented retrospectively as having circulated undetected for >6 months.
Autochthonous dengue transmission will be confirmed in at least 2 Southern European countries during the July–October 2026 transmission season.
NDM-producing Enterobacterales prevalence in European ICUs will exceed 5% in EARS-Net 2026 data.