BA.3.2 ("Cicada") will cause a detectable wastewater elevation (≥20% increase from Q1 2026 baseline) in ≥3 of the 14 monitored countries by 2026-06-30, driven by immune escape from prior SARS-CoV-2 immunity.

System-generated assessment. This assessment remains under review until the stated horizon or until sufficient evidence allows evaluation.

Moderate confidence

Confidence in this assessment

50%

The evidence is meaningful, but there is still material uncertainty. Based on 23 linked evidence items and assessed against Jun 30, 2026.

Confidence trend

No meaningful change from the previous update

Assessed through Jun 30, 202623 linked evidence itemsTracking since Apr 13, 2026

How this assessment will be evaluated

The criteria the system uses to determine whether this assessment is borne out by the stated horizon.

Automated

Method

Evidence Match

The condition the system checks for when evaluating this assessment.

Minimum source quality

T1Primary Institutional

Evidence must meet or exceed this credibility tier to count toward evaluation.

Required terms

detectablewastewater2026-06-30sars-cov-2

Tracking since Apr 13, 2026.

T16

T217

Integrity referencesCryptographic hashes for verification

Registration

Integrity anchor

Brier 0.202

19 resolved novel pathogen detection predictions.

The current analyst narrative for this scope.

MERS camel-to-human confirmed in Somalia; BA.3.2 wastewater data absent; no novel sarbecovirus emergence signal.

WHO DON Apr 13 activity uptick mildly consistent with BA.3.2 circulation

23 linked items.

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 2 tracked assessments.

Apr 13, 2026

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 2 tracked assessments.

30 deaths