Epi CanaryEpi Canary
  • Home
  • Feed
  • Synthesis
  • Assessments
  • Scopes
  • Reliability
  • Sources
Epi Canary — Epidemic IntelligenceEvidence-led epidemic intelligence. Source-attributed evidence.
Arcede logoMade by Arcede

Public note

For situational awareness and research transparency. Not medical advice.

Novel Pathogen Detectionresolved

SARS-CoV-2 wastewater concentrations across 14 monitored countries will remain below winter 2025-26 peak through Q2 2026.

System-generated assessment. This assessment remains under review until the stated horizon or until sufficient evidence allows evaluation.

High confidence

Confidence in this assessment
90%

Evidence is strong and consistent, while still subject to revision as new data arrives. Based on 23 linked evidence items and assessed against Jun 30, 2026.

Assessed through Jun 30, 2026·23 linked evidence items·Tracking since Apr 12, 2026

02

How this assessment will be evaluated

The criteria the system uses to determine whether this assessment is borne out by the stated horizon.

Automated

Method

Evidence Match

The condition the system checks for when evaluating this assessment.

Minimum source quality

T1Primary Institutional

Evidence must meet or exceed this credibility tier to count toward evaluation.

Required terms

concentrationssars-cov-2wastewatermonitored

Outcome

Apr 12, 2026
Observed by horizonReliability score (Brier): 0.850

Resolved with score 0.85

T2·Unknown

03

Evidence quality mix

Tracking since Apr 12, 2026.

T16
T217
▸Integrity referencesCryptographic hashes for verification

Registration

Resolution signature

06

Scope synthesis

The current analyst narrative for this scope.

Open synthesis →

MERS camel-to-human confirmed in Somalia; BA.3.2 wastewater data absent; no novel sarbecovirus emergence signal.

07

Evidence linked to this assessment

23 linked items.

COVID-19 - Global Situation. Since early 2025, global SARS-CoV-2 variant trends have slightly sh

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 2 tracked assessments.

T2https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2025-DON572supports
Apr 13, 2026
Zero Preventable Maternal Deaths. The COVID-19 pandemic exposed the vulnerabilities of the regio

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 2 tracked assessments.

30 deaths

T2https://www.paho.org/en/zero-preventable-maternal-deaths
supports
Apr 22, 2026
Infectious disease topics. pneumoniae Salmonellosis SARS-CoV-2 Seasonal influenza Severe acute r

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 2 tracked assessments.

T1https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/all-topicssupports
Apr 19, 2026
Infectious disease topics. pneumoniae Salmonellosis SARS-CoV-2 Seasonal influenza Severe acute r

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 2 tracked assessments.

T1https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/all-topicssupports
Apr 18, 2026
COVID-19 - Global Situation. Recent increases in SARS-CoV-2 activity are broadly consistent with

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 2 tracked assessments.

T2https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2025-DON572supports
Apr 13, 2026
Zero Preventable Maternal Deaths. The COVID-19 pandemic exposed the vulnerabilities of the regio

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 2 tracked assessments.

T2https://www.paho.org/en/zero-preventable-maternal-deathssupports
Apr 20, 2026
Zero Preventable Maternal Deaths. The COVID-19 pandemic exposed the vulnerabilities of the regio

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 2 tracked assessments.

T2https://www.paho.org/en/zero-preventable-maternal-deathssupports
Apr 18, 2026
Association between COVID-19 status and Leydig cell functional capacity among men in hospitalize

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 2 tracked assessments.

2 cases

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41902764/supports
Apr 21, 2026
Association between COVID-19 status and Leydig cell functional capacity among men in hospitalize

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 2 tracked assessments.

2 cases · 0 deaths · 0 samples

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41902764/supports
Apr 13, 2026
WHO — 2026-03-30 — "Types of data requested to inform May 2026 COVID-19 vaccine antigen composit

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 2 tracked assessments.

T1https://www.who.int/news/item/30-03-2026-types-of-data-requested-to-inform-may-2026-covid-19-vaccine-antigen-composition-deliberationssupports
Apr 21, 2026
EVIP - Vaccination portal (opens in a new window). COVID-19 Key facts on COVID-19, symptoms, com

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 2 tracked assessments.

T1https://vaccination-info.europa.eu/ensupports
Apr 20, 2026
EVIP - Vaccination portal (opens in a new window). COVID-19 Key facts on COVID-19, symptoms, com

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 2 tracked assessments.

T1https://vaccination-info.europa.eu/ensupports
Apr 19, 2026
EVIP - Vaccination portal (opens in a new window). COVID-19 Key facts on COVID-19, symptoms, com

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 2 tracked assessments.

T1https://vaccination-info.europa.eu/ensupports
Apr 18, 2026
The effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines and the added benefit of booster doses in Hessen, Germany

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 2 tracked assessments.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41758994/supports
Apr 17, 2026
The effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines and the added benefit of booster doses in Hessen, Germany

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 2 tracked assessments.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41758994/supports
Apr 14, 2026
The effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines and the added benefit of booster doses in Hessen, Germany

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 2 tracked assessments.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41758994/supports
Apr 13, 2026
Covid-19 and influenza vaccine hesitancy insights from France, Italy and Hungary: A mixed-method

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 2 tracked assessments.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41884998/supports
Apr 13, 2026
The effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines and the added benefit of booster doses in Hessen, Germany

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 2 tracked assessments.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41758994/supports
Apr 13, 2026
Association between COVID-19 status and Leydig cell functional capacity among men in hospitalize

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 2 tracked assessments.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41902764/supports
Apr 17, 2026
Association between COVID-19 status and Leydig cell functional capacity among men in hospitalize

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 2 tracked assessments.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41902764/supports
Apr 14, 2026
Association between COVID-19 status and Leydig cell functional capacity among men in hospitalize

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 2 tracked assessments.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41902764/supports
Apr 13, 2026
COVID-19 - Global Situation. Situation at a glance Since mid-February 2025, according to data av

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 2 tracked assessments.

T2https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2025-DON572supports
Apr 13, 2026
Association between COVID-19 status and Leydig cell functional capacity among men in hospitalize

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 2 tracked assessments.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41902764/supports
Apr 13, 2026

Integrity anchor

Brier 0.202

19 resolved novel pathogen detection predictions.