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Epi Canary — Epidemic IntelligenceEvidence-led epidemic intelligence. Source-attributed evidence.
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Public note

For situational awareness and research transparency. Not medical advice.

Novel Pathogen Detectionactive

Autochthonous chikungunya transmission will be documented in at least one additional Chinese province beyond Guangdong during the 2026 warm season (May–October), confirmed by national health authority or peer-reviewed publication.

System-generated assessment. This assessment remains under review until the stated horizon or until sufficient evidence allows evaluation.

Moderate confidence

Confidence in this assessment
50%

The evidence is meaningful, but there is still material uncertainty. Based on 17 linked evidence items and assessed against 180D.

Assessed through 180D·17 linked evidence items·Tracking since Apr 21, 2026

02

How this assessment will be evaluated

The criteria the system uses to determine whether this assessment is borne out by the stated horizon.

Automated

Method

Evidence Match

The condition the system checks for when evaluating this assessment.

Minimum source quality

T1Primary Institutional

Evidence must meet or exceed this credibility tier to count toward evaluation.

Required terms

autochthonouspeer-reviewedtransmissionchikungunya

03

Evidence quality mix

Tracking since Apr 21, 2026.

T217
▸Integrity referencesCryptographic hashes for verification

Registration

06

Scope synthesis

The current analyst narrative for this scope.

Open synthesis →

Hong Kong reports first locally acquired dengue case of 2026; Guangzhou chikungunya epidemic-size study confirms massive underreported 2025 burden; multi-regional CHIK escalation signal strengthening.

Guangzhou epidemic-size study directly validates key assumption of China provincial CHIK spread

07

Evidence linked to this assessment

17 linked items.

Chikungunya - La Réunion and Mayotte. In La Réunion, over 47 500 cases and twelve associated dea

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 6 tracked assessments.

500 cases · 0 deaths · 0 samples

T2https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2025-DON567supports
Apr 13, 2026
Chikungunya virus disease- Global situation. Between 1 January and 30 September 2025, a total of

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 6 tracked assessments.

0 cases · 155 deaths · 0 samples

T2https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2025-DON581
supports
Apr 13, 2026
Chikungunya - La Réunion and Mayotte. Although chikungunya outbreaks and endemic transmission oc

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 9 tracked assessments.

T2https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2025-DON567supports
Apr 13, 2026
Maternal Chikungunya virus infection and pregnancy outcomes: a global systematic review and meta

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 6 tracked assessments.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41883008/supports
Apr 22, 2026
Maternal Chikungunya virus infection and pregnancy outcomes: a global systematic review and meta

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 6 tracked assessments.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41883008/supports
Apr 22, 2026
CHIKUNGUNYA – ESPAÑA: AUMENTO MARCADO DE INCIDENCIA, AMPLIACIÓN DE VENTANA DE TRANSMISIÓN. El vi

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 6 tracked assessments.

T2https://www.promedmail.org/?alert=8732368supports
Apr 21, 2026
Estimating the epidemic size of chikungunya virus infection in Guangzhou, China, from July to Se

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 6 tracked assessments.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41911367/supports
Apr 20, 2026
Estimating the epidemic size of chikungunya virus infection in Guangzhou, China, from July to Se

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 6 tracked assessments.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41911367/supports
Apr 20, 2026
Estimating the epidemic size of chikungunya virus infection in Guangzhou, China, from July to Se

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 6 tracked assessments.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41911367/supports
Apr 20, 2026
Estimating the epidemic size of chikungunya virus infection in Guangzhou, China, from July to Se

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 6 tracked assessments.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41911367/supports
Apr 17, 2026
Estimating the epidemic size of chikungunya virus infection in Guangzhou, China, from July to Se

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 6 tracked assessments.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41911367/supports
Apr 17, 2026
Estimating the epidemic size of chikungunya virus infection in Guangzhou, China, from July to Se

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 6 tracked assessments.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41911367/supports
Apr 17, 2026
Modulating Chikungunya and Mayaro virus-induced disease severity in mice using low concentration

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 6 tracked assessments.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41532622/supports
Apr 17, 2026
Estimating the epidemic size of chikungunya virus infection in Guangzhou, China, from July to Se

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 6 tracked assessments.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41911367/supports
Apr 14, 2026
Estimating the epidemic size of chikungunya virus infection in Guangzhou, China, from July to Se

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 6 tracked assessments.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41911367/supports
Apr 14, 2026
Estimating the epidemic size of chikungunya virus infection in Guangzhou, China, from July to Se

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 6 tracked assessments.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41911367/supports
Apr 14, 2026
Chikungunya - La Réunion and Mayotte. Situation at a glance Since August 2024, widespread transm

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 6 tracked assessments.

T2https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2025-DON567supports
Apr 13, 2026

Integrity anchor

Brier 0.202

19 resolved novel pathogen detection predictions.