Estimating the epidemic size of chikungunya virus infection in Guangzhou, China, from July to September 2025: a single-center cross-sectional study.

T2Wire / Structuredvia pubmedRetrieved Apr 20, 2026View original source ↗

Grounds assessments

activeAutochthonous chikungunya transmission will be documented in at least one additional Chinese province beyond Guangdong during the 2026 warm season (May–October), confirmed by national health authority or peer-reviewed publication.50%activeLa Réunion 2026 chikungunya outbreak will exceed 100,000 cumulative reported cases by August 31 2026, based on the 47,500+ case trajectory as of April 2026 and the historical precedent of the 2005-2006 Réunion epidemic reaching 266,000 cases over a longer surveillance period, given that 2026 surveillance capacity and reporting speed are substantially higher than 2005.60%activeECDC will issue a rapid risk assessment or seasonal preparedness alert specifically addressing La Réunion and/or Mayotte chikungunya importation risk for Mediterranean Europe (Italy, Spain, France, Greece) before the 2026 vector season peak (by July 1, 2026), given the 47,500+ case scale of the La Réunion outbreak and established Aedes albopictus populations in Southern Europe.50%resolvedLa Réunion chikungunya outbreak will sustain >10,000 cumulative reported cases through at least July 31 2026, maintaining active seeding pressure on metropolitan France during the peak Aedes albopictus transmission window.70%activeViremic travelers from La Réunion will seed at least one documented autochthonous chikungunya cluster (≥2 locally-acquired cases) in Italy, Spain, or Greece during the 2026 vector season (July–October), given the scale of the current La Réunion outbreak (47,500+ cases) and established Aedes albopictus populations in Mediterranean Europe.50%activeFirst confirmed autochthonous dengue or chikungunya transmission in the UK, Netherlands, Belgium, or Germany will be documented during the 2026 or 2027 Northern Hemisphere transmission season (June–October).30%activeChikungunya will establish autochthonous transmission in at least one subtropical East Asian city outside Guangdong Province (e.g., Taiwan, South Korea, or Japan) during the 2026 or 2027 vector season, based on the documented 2025 Guangzhou urban epidemic demonstrating CHIK transmission competence in a temperate-subtropical East Asian megacity.40%

Evidence content

Although no previous large-scale outbreak was reported in China in recent years, since July 2025, a surge in the number of chikungunya virus infections has been observed in multiple cities of Guangdong province following the introduction of imported cases, including Guangzhou. Using serological and epidemiological data obtained during a chikungunya outbreak in Guangzhou city, we estimated an attack rate of 22% for chikungunya virus infection. Accounting for case under-reporting is crucial for accurate disease burden assessment and planning of future...

Epidemiology

Attack rate: 22%

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Run ID: 8d426213-f7da-4446-97b4-f289f3c1526b
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