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Arboviral ExpansionHealth
  • Overview
  • Synthesis
  • Assessments
  • Evidence

Public note

For situational awareness and research transparency. Not medical advice.

Healthactive

Arboviral Expansion

Monitoring dengue, Zika, and chikungunya geographic range expansion driven by climate-mediated vector habitat shifts.

Open assessments

12

Tracked assessments currently open in this scope.

Evidence items

170

Source-attributed evidence available to this scope.

Source feeds

0

Configured sources contributing data to this investigation.

Last activity

Apr 18, 2026

Most recent scope activity captured in the system.

01

Synthesis

The current analyst view of this scope, at increasing levels of depth.

Hong Kong reports first locally acquired dengue case of 2026; Guangzhou chikungunya epidemic-size study confirms massive underreported 2025 burden; multi-regional CHIK escalation signal strengthening.

Hong Kong health authorities confirmed the first locally acquired dengue case of 2026 (Apr 22 ProMED), extending East Asian Aedes vector activity signals into a previously CHIK-free sub-region. PubMed (Apr 17, 20) published an epidemic-size modeling study for the Guangzhou 2025 chikungunya outbreak, estimating substantially higher burden than reported — directly supporting the China provincial CHIK expansion hypothesis. Bangladesh dengue continues at 25 new cases in 24 hours (Apr 22). The simultaneous multi-regional CHIK escalation hypothesis gains incremental support from ongoing concurrent signals across La Réunion, Spain, Mauritius, and China.

02

Assessments

Open assessments being tracked inside this scope, ordered for fast review.

Hong Kong will confirm ≥3 locally acquired dengue cases in the 2026 vector season (April–October), establishing autochthonous dengue transmission as a recurrent annual feature in sub-tropical East Asia beyond established endemic zones.

Novel Pathogen Detection·active·50%·Through 180D·3 linked items·Apr 22, 2026

Autochthonous dengue transmission will be reported in at least 2 Southern European countries during the 2026 season.

Novel Pathogen Detection·resolved·50%·Through Oct 31, 2026·1 linked item·Apr 22, 2026

Autochthonous chikungunya transmission will be documented in at least one additional Chinese province beyond Guangdong during the 2026 warm season (May–October), confirmed by national health authority or peer-reviewed publication.

Novel Pathogen Detection·active·50%·Through 180D·17 linked items·Apr 22, 2026

La Réunion 2026 chikungunya outbreak will exceed 100,000 cumulative reported cases by August 31 2026, based on the 47,500+ case trajectory as of April 2026 and the historical precedent of the 2005-2006 Réunion epidemic reaching 266,000 cases over a longer surveillance period, given that 2026 surveillance capacity and reporting speed are substantially higher than 2005.

Novel Pathogen Detection·active·60%·Through 180D·17 linked items·Apr 22, 2026

ECDC will issue a rapid risk assessment or seasonal preparedness alert specifically addressing La Réunion and/or Mayotte chikungunya importation risk for Mediterranean Europe (Italy, Spain, France, Greece) before the 2026 vector season peak (by July 1, 2026), given the 47,500+ case scale of the La Réunion outbreak and established Aedes albopictus populations in Southern Europe.

Novel Pathogen Detection·active·50%·Through 90D·17 linked items·Apr 22, 2026

La Réunion chikungunya outbreak will sustain >10,000 cumulative reported cases through at least July 31 2026, maintaining active seeding pressure on metropolitan France during the peak Aedes albopictus transmission window.

Novel Pathogen Detection·resolved·70%·Through Jul 31, 2026·17 linked items·Apr 22, 2026

Viremic travelers from La Réunion will seed at least one documented autochthonous chikungunya cluster (≥2 locally-acquired cases) in Italy, Spain, or Greece during the 2026 vector season (July–October), given the scale of the current La Réunion outbreak (47,500+ cases) and established Aedes albopictus populations in Mediterranean Europe.

Novel Pathogen Detection·active·50%·Through Oct 31, 2026·17 linked items·Apr 22, 2026

First confirmed autochthonous dengue or chikungunya transmission in the UK, Netherlands, Belgium, or Germany will be documented during the 2026 or 2027 Northern Hemisphere transmission season (June–October).

Novel Pathogen Detection·active·30%·Through Oct 31, 2027·17 linked items·Apr 22, 2026

Simultaneous chikungunya escalation across ≥4 distinct geographic regions (Indian Ocean, Mediterranean Europe, East Asia, Americas) will be confirmed in 2026 arbovirus season reports by WHO/ECDC/PAHO as a structurally new multi-region synchronized expansion pattern distinct from historical single-region epidemic cycles.

Novel Pathogen Detection·active·60%·Through 180D·0 linked items·Apr 22, 2026

Spain will document ≥500 autochthonous chikungunya cases in the 2026 vector season (April–October 2026), confirming the expanded transmission window as epidemiologically significant and establishing a quantitative baseline for the 2027 autochthonous cycle.

Novel Pathogen Detection·active·50%·Through 90D·2 linked items·Apr 22, 2026

Mauritius 2026 CHIK outbreak will exceed 5,000 confirmed cases by Aug 31 2026, reflecting regional Indian Ocean arboviral season co-driven by same La Réunion/Mascarene climate warming pattern.

Novel Pathogen Detection·active·50%·Through 180D·1 linked item·Apr 21, 2026

Spain will document autochthonous chikungunya transmission in 2027 season with ≥100 confirmed cases, establishing consecutive-year (2026-2027) endemic seasonal transmission status in mainland Spain

Novel Pathogen Detection·active·60%·Through Dec 31, 2027·1 linked item·Apr 21, 2026

Chikungunya will establish autochthonous transmission in at least one subtropical East Asian city outside Guangdong Province (e.g., Taiwan, South Korea, or Japan) during the 2026 or 2027 vector season, based on the documented 2025 Guangzhou urban epidemic demonstrating CHIK transmission competence in a temperate-subtropical East Asian megacity.

Novel Pathogen Detection·active·40%·Through 180D·10 linked items·Apr 20, 2026

Oropouche virus will cause ≥1,000 confirmed cases in a country outside Brazil/Bolivia in the 2026 Americas arbovirus season (April–December 2026), based on 11,634 confirmed multi-country cases by Nov 2024 and WHO confirmation that the 2026 season is now beginning.

Novel Pathogen Detection·active·50%·Through 180D·1 linked item·Apr 18, 2026

Autochthonous dengue transmission will be confirmed in at least 2 Southern European countries during the July–October 2026 transmission season.

Novel Pathogen Detection·active·50%·Through Oct 31, 2026·0 linked items·Apr 13, 2026

03

Recent evidence

The most recent source-attributed evidence flowing into this investigation.

DENGUE - BANGLADESH (08): UPDATE. Health officials reported 25 new dengue cases in the last 24 h

Apr 22, 2026
T2·https://www.promedmail.org/?alert=8732382·2 linked assessments

DENGUE - CHINA: (HONG KONG) FIRST LOCALLY ACQUIRED CASE. The individual developed symptoms consi

Apr 22, 2026
T2·https://www.promedmail.org/?alert=8732392·1 linked assessment

DENGUE - CHINA: (HONG KONG) FIRST LOCALLY ACQUIRED CASE. Hong Kong health authorities are invest

Apr 22, 2026
T2·https://www.promedmail.org/?alert=8732392·1 linked assessment

Diagnostic and surveillance strategies for Marburg virus persistence in the male reproductive tr

Apr 22, 2026
T2·https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41988981/

Diagnostic and surveillance strategies for Marburg virus persistence in the male reproductive tr

Apr 22, 2026
T2·https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41988981/

Small extracellular vesicles from DENV2-infected C6/36 cells show viral infection in vitro and i

Apr 22, 2026
T2·https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41591810/

Maternal Chikungunya virus infection and pregnancy outcomes: a global systematic review and meta

Apr 22, 2026
T2·https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41883008/·6 linked assessments

Maternal Chikungunya virus infection and pregnancy outcomes: a global systematic review and meta

Apr 22, 2026
T2·https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41883008/·6 linked assessments

PAHO's Former Directors. He then became regional director of the foundation s International

Apr 21, 2026
T2·https://www.paho.org/en/who-we-are/pahos-former-directors

CHIKUNGUNYA – ESPAÑA: AUMENTO MARCADO DE INCIDENCIA, AMPLIACIÓN DE VENTANA DE TRANSMISIÓN. El vi

Apr 21, 2026
T2·https://www.promedmail.org/?alert=8732368·6 linked assessments