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Novel Coronavirus SurveillanceHealth
  • Overview
  • Synthesis
  • Assessments
  • Evidence

Public note

For situational awareness and research transparency. Not medical advice.

Healthactive

Novel Coronavirus Surveillance

Continuous monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 variant evolution, immune escape mutations, and signals of novel coronavirus emergence in animal reservoirs.

Open assessments

3

Tracked assessments currently open in this scope.

Evidence items

186

Source-attributed evidence available to this scope.

Source feeds

0

Configured sources contributing data to this investigation.

Last activity

Apr 18, 2026

Most recent scope activity captured in the system.

01

Synthesis

The current analyst view of this scope, at increasing levels of depth.

MERS camel-to-human confirmed in Somalia; BA.3.2 wastewater data absent; no novel sarbecovirus emergence signal.

Three hypotheses track BA.3.2 pediatric hospitalization burden, absence of novel sarbecovirus/merbecovirus with H2H transmission, and BA.3.2 wastewater elevation. ProMED captured MERS camel-to-human transmission in Somalia (Apr 22) — an established zoonotic pathway, not a novel CoV emergence event; neutral for the no-novel-emergence hypothesis. WHO DON (Apr 13) noted SARS-CoV-2 activity increases broadly consistent with prior seasonal patterns, providing marginal support for BA.3.2 wastewater hypothesis.

02

Assessments

Open assessments being tracked inside this scope, ordered for fast review.

BA.3.2 ("Cicada") will cause a detectable wastewater elevation (≥20% increase from Q1 2026 baseline) in ≥3 of the 14 monitored countries by 2026-06-30, driven by immune escape from prior SARS-CoV-2 immunity.

Novel Pathogen Detection·active·50%·Through Jun 30, 2026·23 linked items·Apr 22, 2026

SARS-CoV-2 wastewater concentrations across 14 monitored countries will remain below winter 2025-26 peak through Q2 2026.

Novel Pathogen Detection·resolved·90%·Through Jun 30, 2026·23 linked items·Apr 22, 2026

BA.3.2 will show documented excess pediatric hospitalization burden vs adult rate in at least one national surveillance dataset by Sep 30 2026.

Novel Pathogen Detection·active·60%·Through 180D·0 linked items·Apr 21, 2026

No novel sarbecovirus or merbecovirus with sustained human-to-human transmission declared via WHO DON or equivalent PHEIC-class authority through 2026-12-31.

Novel Pathogen Detection·active·73%·Through Dec 31, 2026·0 linked items·Apr 21, 2026

03

Recent evidence

The most recent source-attributed evidence flowing into this investigation.

Outbreak Brief 15: Sudan Virus Disease in Uganda &#8211

Apr 22, 2026
T1·https://africacdc.org/disease-outbreak/outbreak-brief-15-sudan-virus-disease-in-uganda/
Auto-taggedOutbreak

Outbreak Brief 15: Sudan Virus Disease in Uganda &#8211

Apr 22, 2026
T1·https://africacdc.org/disease-outbreak/outbreak-brief-15-sudan-virus-disease-in-uganda/
Auto-taggedOutbreak

MIDDLE EAST RESPIRATORY SYNDROME CORONAVIRUS - SOMALIA: MERS TRANSMISSION, CAMEL TO HUMAN. While

Apr 22, 2026
T2·https://www.promedmail.org/?alert=8732389
Auto-taggedOutbreak

MIDDLE EAST RESPIRATORY SYNDROME CORONAVIRUS - SOMALIA: MERS TRANSMISSION, CAMEL TO HUMAN. This

Apr 22, 2026
T2·https://www.promedmail.org/?alert=8732389
Auto-taggedOutbreak

MIDDLE EAST RESPIRATORY SYNDROME CORONAVIRUS - SOMALIA: MERS TRANSMISSION, CAMEL TO HUMAN. Evide

Apr 22, 2026
T2·https://www.promedmail.org/?alert=8732389
Auto-taggedOutbreak

FOOT & MOUTH DISEASE - BOTSWANA (02): CATTLE, TEMPORARY ABATTOIR CLOSURE, EXPANDING OUTBREAK. De

Apr 22, 2026
T2·https://www.promedmail.org/?alert=8732384
Auto-taggedOutbreak

FOOT & MOUTH DISEASE - BOTSWANA (02): CATTLE, TEMPORARY ABATTOIR CLOSURE, EXPANDING OUTBREAK. A

Apr 22, 2026
T2·https://www.promedmail.org/?alert=8732384
Auto-taggedOutbreak

EQUINE INFLUENZA - USA (03): (OREGON) HORSE. The disease can spread through direct contact, airb

Apr 22, 2026
T2·https://www.promedmail.org/?alert=8732383

EQUINE INFLUENZA - USA (03): (OREGON) HORSE. A horse in Oregon has tested positive for equine in

Apr 22, 2026
T2·https://www.promedmail.org/?alert=8732383

Vaccination Coverage by Age 24 Months Among Children Born in 2021 and 2022 — National Immu

Apr 22, 2026
T1·https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/75/wr/mm7511a2.htm?s_cid=OS_mm7511a2_w