Epi CanaryEpi Canary
  • Home
  • Feed
  • Synthesis
  • Assessments
  • Scopes
  • Reliability
  • Sources
Epi Canary — Epidemic IntelligenceEvidence-led epidemic intelligence. Source-attributed evidence.
Arcede logoMade by Arcede

Public note

For situational awareness and research transparency. Not medical advice.

Needs resolution

This prediction reached its horizon without auto-resolution. Our synthesis agents are reviewing. Check back, or contribute your assessment.

Novel Pathogen Detectionexpired

XDR Shigella (azithromycin + fluoroquinolone + 3GC resistant) will be confirmed in at least one US state beyond the index cluster state within 90 days of the April 13 2026 CDC emergence report, based on the very low inoculum transmission threshold (~10-100 organisms) and MSM sexual network connectivity between major US metro areas.

System-generated assessment. This assessment remains under review until the stated horizon or until sufficient evidence allows evaluation.

Substantial confidence

Confidence in this assessment
60%

Multiple lines of evidence are aligned, though the assessment remains provisional. Based on 1 linked evidence item and assessed against 90D.

Assessed through 90D·1 linked evidence item·Tracking since Apr 14, 2026

02

How this assessment will be evaluated

The criteria the system uses to determine whether this assessment is borne out by the stated horizon.

Automated

Method

Evidence Match

The condition the system checks for when evaluating this assessment.

Minimum source quality

T1Primary Institutional

Evidence must meet or exceed this credibility tier to count toward evaluation.

Required terms

fluoroquinoloneazithromycintransmissionconnectivity

03

Evidence quality mix

Tracking since Apr 14, 2026.

T21
▸Integrity referencesCryptographic hashes for verification

Registration

06

Scope synthesis

The current analyst narrative for this scope.

Open synthesis →

AMR evidence pipeline severely constrained this cycle; two hypotheses resolve Apr 27 without confirmatory data; PubMed failure and stale secondary connectors limit incident coverage.

07

Evidence linked to this assessment

1 linked item.

XDR SHIGELLA US EMERGENCE — CDC MMWR APRIL 2026 Title: "Emergence of Extensively Drug-Resistant

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 13 tracked assessments.

T2https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/75/wr/mm7515a1.htmsupports
Apr 20, 2026

Integrity anchor

Brier 0.202

19 resolved novel pathogen detection predictions.

Mirror replication is delayed on 1 of 3 tables. Showing last replicated data.