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Epi Canary — Epidemic IntelligenceEvidence-led epidemic intelligence. Source-attributed evidence.
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Public note

For situational awareness and research transparency. Not medical advice.

Needs resolution

This prediction reached its horizon without auto-resolution. Our synthesis agents are reviewing. Check back, or contribute your assessment.

Novel Pathogen Detectionexpired

At least one XDR Shigella case phylogenetically linked to the US April 2026 cluster will be confirmed in a UK, French, or Dutch sexual health clinic or MSM outbreak investigation by September 2026, consistent with the 2022-2023 ceftriaxone-resistant Shigella international spread pattern through MSM travel and sexual networks.

System-generated assessment. This assessment remains under review until the stated horizon or until sufficient evidence allows evaluation.

Moderate confidence

Confidence in this assessment
50%

The evidence is meaningful, but there is still material uncertainty. Based on 1 linked evidence item and assessed against 90D.

Assessed through 90D·1 linked evidence item·Tracking since Apr 14, 2026

02

How this assessment will be evaluated

The criteria the system uses to determine whether this assessment is borne out by the stated horizon.

Automated

Method

Evidence Match

The condition the system checks for when evaluating this assessment.

Minimum source quality

T1Primary Institutional

Evidence must meet or exceed this credibility tier to count toward evaluation.

Required terms

ceftriaxone-resistantphylogeneticallyinvestigationinternational

03

Evidence quality mix

Tracking since Apr 14, 2026.

T21
▸Integrity referencesCryptographic hashes for verification

Registration

06

Scope synthesis

The current analyst narrative for this scope.

Open synthesis →

AMR evidence coverage critically degraded this cycle; two hypotheses resolve in 5 days without supporting data; PubMed failure is the primary bottleneck.

07

Evidence linked to this assessment

1 linked item.

XDR SHIGELLA US EMERGENCE — CDC MMWR APRIL 2026 Title: "Emergence of Extensively Drug-Resistant

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 13 tracked assessments.

T2https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/75/wr/mm7515a1.htmsupports
Apr 20, 2026

Integrity anchor

Brier 0.202

19 resolved novel pathogen detection predictions.

Mirror replication is delayed on 2 of 3 tables. Showing last replicated data. Data may be stale.