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Epi Canary — Epidemic IntelligenceEvidence-led epidemic intelligence. Source-attributed evidence.
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Public note

For situational awareness and research transparency. Not medical advice.

Novel Pathogen Detectionresolved

A phylogenetically linked XDR Shigella case will be documented outside the United States by October 2026, tracing to the Los Angeles novel XDR strain identified December 2024/January 2026 via the MSM sexual transmission network

System-generated assessment. This assessment remains under review until the stated horizon or until sufficient evidence allows evaluation.

Moderate confidence

Confidence in this assessment
50%

The evidence is meaningful, but there is still material uncertainty. Based on 1 linked evidence item and assessed against Oct 31, 2026.

Assessed through Oct 31, 2026·1 linked evidence item·Tracking since Apr 20, 2026

02

How this assessment will be evaluated

The criteria the system uses to determine whether this assessment is borne out by the stated horizon.

Automated

Method

Evidence Match

The condition the system checks for when evaluating this assessment.

Minimum source quality

T1Primary Institutional

Evidence must meet or exceed this credibility tier to count toward evaluation.

Required terms

phylogeneticallytransmissiondocumentedidentified

Outcome

Apr 20, 2026
Observed by horizonReliability score (Brier): 0.250

Resolved with score 0.25

T2·Unknown

03

Evidence quality mix

Tracking since Apr 20, 2026.

T21
▸Integrity referencesCryptographic hashes for verification

Registration

Resolution signature

06

Scope synthesis

The current analyst narrative for this scope.

Open synthesis →

AMR evidence pipeline severely constrained this cycle; two hypotheses resolve Apr 27 without confirmatory data; PubMed failure and stale secondary connectors limit incident coverage.

07

Evidence linked to this assessment

1 linked item.

XDR SHIGELLA US EMERGENCE — CDC MMWR APRIL 2026 Title: "Emergence of Extensively Drug-Resistant

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 13 tracked assessments.

T2https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/75/wr/mm7515a1.htmsupports
Apr 20, 2026
Mirror replication is delayed on 1 of 3 tables. Showing last replicated data.

Integrity anchor

Brier 0.202

19 resolved novel pathogen detection predictions.