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Epi Canary — Epidemic IntelligenceEvidence-led epidemic intelligence. Source-attributed evidence.
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Public note

For situational awareness and research transparency. Not medical advice.

Novel Pathogen Detectionactive

XDR Shigella (resistant to azithromycin + fluoroquinolones + 3GC simultaneously) proportion in PulseNet US surveillance will exceed 10% of submitted isolates by end of 2026, up from 8.5% in 2023 (MMWR mm7513a1 data endpoint). CIDRAP Jan 14 2026 reported "novel XDR Shigella strain identified in Los Angeles" — the only confirmed 2026 XDR Shigella signal. MMWR 2011-2023 trend shows acceleration: 0% pre-2016 → 8.5% by 2023, with 84% of XDR cases in 2022-2023.

System-generated assessment. This assessment remains under review until the stated horizon or until sufficient evidence allows evaluation.

Moderate confidence

Confidence in this assessment
50%

The evidence is meaningful, but there is still material uncertainty. Based on 1 linked evidence item and assessed against Dec 31, 2026.

Assessed through Dec 31, 2026·1 linked evidence item·Tracking since Apr 20, 2026

02

How this assessment will be evaluated

The criteria the system uses to determine whether this assessment is borne out by the stated horizon.

Automated

Method

Evidence Match

The condition the system checks for when evaluating this assessment.

Minimum source quality

T1Primary Institutional

Evidence must meet or exceed this credibility tier to count toward evaluation.

Required terms

fluoroquinolonessimultaneouslyazithromycinsurveillance

03

Evidence quality mix

Tracking since Apr 20, 2026.

T21
▸Integrity referencesCryptographic hashes for verification

Registration

06

Scope synthesis

The current analyst narrative for this scope.

Open synthesis →

AMR evidence pipeline severely constrained this cycle; two hypotheses resolve Apr 27 without confirmatory data; PubMed failure and stale secondary connectors limit incident coverage.

Resolves Apr 27; no PulseNet data; likely no-resolve

07

Evidence linked to this assessment

1 linked item.

XDR SHIGELLA US EMERGENCE — CDC MMWR APRIL 2026 Title: "Emergence of Extensively Drug-Resistant

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 13 tracked assessments.

T2https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/75/wr/mm7515a1.htmsupports
Apr 20, 2026
Mirror replication is delayed on 2 of 3 tables. Showing last replicated data. Data may be stale.

Integrity anchor

Brier 0.202

19 resolved novel pathogen detection predictions.