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Epi Canary — Epidemic IntelligenceEvidence-led epidemic intelligence. Source-attributed evidence.
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Public note

For situational awareness and research transparency. Not medical advice.

Novel Pathogen Detectionactive

Hong Kong will confirm ≥3 locally acquired dengue cases in the 2026 vector season (April–October), establishing autochthonous dengue transmission as a recurrent annual feature in sub-tropical East Asia beyond established endemic zones.

System-generated assessment. This assessment remains under review until the stated horizon or until sufficient evidence allows evaluation.

Moderate confidence

Confidence in this assessment
50%

The evidence is meaningful, but there is still material uncertainty. Based on 3 linked evidence items and assessed against 180D.

Assessed through 180D·3 linked evidence items·Tracking since Apr 22, 2026

02

How this assessment will be evaluated

The criteria the system uses to determine whether this assessment is borne out by the stated horizon.

Automated

Method

Evidence Match

The condition the system checks for when evaluating this assessment.

Minimum source quality

T1Primary Institutional

Evidence must meet or exceed this credibility tier to count toward evaluation.

Required terms

autochthonousestablishingtransmissionsub-tropical

03

Evidence quality mix

Tracking since Apr 22, 2026.

T23
▸Integrity referencesCryptographic hashes for verification

Registration

06

Scope synthesis

The current analyst narrative for this scope.

Open synthesis →

Hong Kong reports first locally acquired dengue case of 2026; Guangzhou chikungunya epidemic-size study confirms massive underreported 2025 burden; multi-regional CHIK escalation signal strengthening.

07

Evidence linked to this assessment

3 linked items.

DENGUE - BANGLADESH (08): UPDATE. Health officials reported 25 new dengue cases in the last 24 h

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 2 tracked assessments.

25 cases

T2https://www.promedmail.org/?alert=8732382supports
Apr 22, 2026
DENGUE - CHINA: (HONG KONG) FIRST LOCALLY ACQUIRED CASE. The individual developed symptoms consi

This report is recorded in the evidence trail but is not yet linked to a tracked assessment.

T2https://www.promedmail.org/?alert=8732392
neutral
Apr 22, 2026
DENGUE - CHINA: (HONG KONG) FIRST LOCALLY ACQUIRED CASE. Hong Kong health authorities are invest

This report is recorded in the evidence trail but is not yet linked to a tracked assessment.

T2https://www.promedmail.org/?alert=8732392neutral
Apr 22, 2026

Integrity anchor

Brier 0.202

19 resolved novel pathogen detection predictions.