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Epi Canary — Epidemic IntelligenceEvidence-led epidemic intelligence. Source-attributed evidence.
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Public note

For situational awareness and research transparency. Not medical advice.

Novel Pathogen Detectionactive

Female sex worker involvement will be documented in the Phnom Penh Clade IIb C.1 outbreak by September 2026, consistent with MPXV replication efficiency in vaginal and ectocervical tissue and the mixed-network structure of sex worker outreach programs in Cambodia.

System-generated assessment. This assessment remains under review until the stated horizon or until sufficient evidence allows evaluation.

Moderate confidence

Confidence in this assessment
50%

The evidence is meaningful, but there is still material uncertainty. Based on 6 linked evidence items and assessed against Sep 30, 2026.

Assessed through Sep 30, 2026·6 linked evidence items·Tracking since Apr 14, 2026

02

How this assessment will be evaluated

The criteria the system uses to determine whether this assessment is borne out by the stated horizon.

Automated

Method

Evidence Match

The condition the system checks for when evaluating this assessment.

Minimum source quality

T1Primary Institutional

Evidence must meet or exceed this credibility tier to count toward evaluation.

Required terms

mixed-networkectocervicalinvolvementreplication

03

Evidence quality mix

Tracking since Apr 14, 2026.

T26
▸Integrity referencesCryptographic hashes for verification

Registration

06

Scope synthesis

The current analyst narrative for this scope.

Open synthesis →

Clade Ib multi-modal European spread continues; new research confirms MPXV replication in vaginal/ectocervical tissue, strengthening plausibility of non-sexual transmission routes.

07

Evidence linked to this assessment

6 linked items.

Monkeypox virus replication and host response in vaginal and ectocervical epithelial cells. Repl

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 1 tracked assessment.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41880196/supports
Apr 17, 2026
Monkeypox virus replication and host response in vaginal and ectocervical epithelial cells. Rece

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 1 tracked assessment.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41880196/supports
Apr 17, 2026
Monkeypox virus replication and host response in vaginal and ectocervical epithelial cells. Repl

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 1 tracked assessment.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41880196/supports
Apr 14, 2026
Monkeypox virus replication and host response in vaginal and ectocervical epithelial cells. Rece

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 1 tracked assessment.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41880196/supports
Apr 14, 2026
Monkeypox virus replication and host response in vaginal and ectocervical epithelial cells. Repl

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 1 tracked assessment.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41880196/supports
Apr 13, 2026
Monkeypox virus replication and host response in vaginal and ectocervical epithelial cells. Rece

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 1 tracked assessment.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41880196/supports
Apr 13, 2026

Integrity anchor

Brier 0.202

19 resolved novel pathogen detection predictions.