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Public note

For situational awareness and research transparency. Not medical advice.

Novel Pathogen Detectionresolved

Mpox clade Ib will be confirmed in at least 2 East African countries outside the DRC by April 2026.

System-generated assessment. This assessment remains under review until the stated horizon or until sufficient evidence allows evaluation.

High confidence

Confidence in this assessment
90%

Evidence is strong and consistent, while still subject to revision as new data arrives. Based on 22 linked evidence items and assessed against Apr 30, 2026.

Assessed through Apr 30, 2026·22 linked evidence items·Tracking since Apr 12, 2026

02

How this assessment will be evaluated

The criteria the system uses to determine whether this assessment is borne out by the stated horizon.

Automated

Method

Evidence Match

The condition the system checks for when evaluating this assessment.

Minimum source quality

T1Primary Institutional

Evidence must meet or exceed this credibility tier to count toward evaluation.

Required terms

confirmedcountriesafricanoutside

Outcome

Apr 12, 2026
Observed by horizonReliability score (Brier): 9.000

Resolved with score 9

T2·Unknown

03

Evidence quality mix

Tracking since Apr 12, 2026.

T12
T219
T31
▸Integrity referencesCryptographic hashes for verification

Registration

Resolution signature

06

Scope synthesis

The current analyst narrative for this scope.

Open synthesis →

Clade Ib multi-modal European spread continues; new research confirms MPXV replication in vaginal/ectocervical tissue, strengthening plausibility of non-sexual transmission routes.

07

Evidence linked to this assessment

22 linked items.

Broader transmission of mpox due to clade Ib MPXV – Global situation. The second declaration of

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 15 tracked assessments.

T1https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2025-DON587supports
Apr 17, 2026
MPOX - USA (03): (CALIFORNIA) SAN FRANCISCO, CLADE I. The CDPH is monitoring the situation and e

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 2 tracked assessments.

T2https://www.promedmail.org/?alert=8732325neutral
Apr 19, 2026
MPOX - USA (03): (CALIFORNIA) SAN FRANCISCO, CLADE I. The California Department of Public Health

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 2 tracked assessments.

T2https://www.promedmail.org/?alert=8732325neutral
Apr 19, 2026
Epidemiology and phylogenomic characterization of the Clade IIb C.1 Mpox outbreak in Phnom Penh,

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 13 tracked assessments.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41575511/supports
Apr 14, 2026
Epidemiology and phylogenomic characterization of the Clade IIb C.1 Mpox outbreak in Phnom Penh,

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 13 tracked assessments.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41575511/supports
Apr 14, 2026
Epidemiology and phylogenomic characterization of the Clade IIb C.1 Mpox outbreak in Phnom Penh,

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 13 tracked assessments.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41575511/supports
Apr 14, 2026
Epidemiology and phylogenomic characterization of the Clade IIb C.1 Mpox outbreak in Phnom Penh,

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 13 tracked assessments.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41575511/supports
Apr 13, 2026
Epidemiology and phylogenomic characterization of the Clade IIb C.1 Mpox outbreak in Phnom Penh,

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 13 tracked assessments.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41575511/supports
Apr 13, 2026
Epidemiology and phylogenomic characterization of the Clade IIb C.1 Mpox outbreak in Phnom Penh,

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 13 tracked assessments.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41575511/supports
Apr 13, 2026
Broader transmission of mpox due to clade Ib MPXV – Global situation. The second declaration of

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 15 tracked assessments.

T2https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2025-DON587supports
Apr 13, 2026
California Clade I Mpox — signal expansion Apr 17-19 2026 (Google News RSS aggregation). Multi-o

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 2 tracked assessments.

T3https://news.google.com/rss/search?q=mpox%20cases%20in%20Californianeutral
Apr 20, 2026
9 Mpox deaths, 25 cases reported across Sindh province, Pakistan. Dunya News, April 15 2026. The

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 11 tracked assessments.

T2https://dunyanews.tv/en/Pakistan/mpox-sindh-deaths-casessupports
Apr 16, 2026
Singapore Communicable Diseases Agency (CDA) — 'Two confirmed cases of locally-transmitted mpox

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 7 tracked assessments.

T1https://www.cda.gov.sg/news-and-events/two-confirmed-cases-of-locally-transmitted-mpox-clade-ib-infection/supports
Apr 20, 2026
MPOX - GHANA (05): EPIDEMIC UPDATE. The Ghana Health Service has confirmed additional cases of m

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 12 tracked assessments.

T2https://www.promedmail.org/?alert=8732298supports
Apr 17, 2026
Singapore Communicable Diseases Agency (CDA) confirmed two cases of locally transmitted mpox Cla

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 8 tracked assessments.

T2https://www.cda.gov.sg/news-and-events/two-confirmed-cases-of-locally-transmitted-mpox-clade-ib-infection/supports
Apr 14, 2026
Genomic diversity of Clade Ia monkeypox virus in the Central African Republic, 2019-2024. Multip

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 1 tracked assessment.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41830101/supports
Apr 17, 2026
Genomic diversity of Clade Ia monkeypox virus in the Central African Republic, 2019-2024. Monkey

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 1 tracked assessment.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41830101/supports
Apr 17, 2026
Genomic diversity of Clade Ia monkeypox virus in the Central African Republic, 2019-2024. Multip

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 1 tracked assessment.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41830101/supports
Apr 14, 2026
Genomic diversity of Clade Ia monkeypox virus in the Central African Republic, 2019-2024. Monkey

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 1 tracked assessment.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41830101/supports
Apr 14, 2026
Genomic diversity of Clade Ia monkeypox virus in the Central African Republic, 2019-2024. Multip

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 1 tracked assessment.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41830101/supports
Apr 13, 2026
Genomic diversity of Clade Ia monkeypox virus in the Central African Republic, 2019-2024. Monkey

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 1 tracked assessment.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41830101/supports
Apr 13, 2026
Pakistan Sindh Mpox Update — Apr 14 2026 (Sindh Health Department, via The Nation Pakistan, Apr

This report is recorded in the evidence trail but is not yet linked to a tracked assessment.

T2https://www.nation.com.pk/16-Apr-2026/mpox-update-25-confirmed-cases-9-deaths-reported-sindhneutral
Apr 20, 2026

Integrity anchor

Brier 0.202

19 resolved novel pathogen detection predictions.