Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 2 tracked assessments.
25 cases
Public note
For situational awareness and research transparency. Not medical advice.
System-generated assessment. This assessment remains under review until the stated horizon or until sufficient evidence allows evaluation.
Moderate confidence
The evidence is meaningful, but there is still material uncertainty. Based on 3 linked evidence items and assessed against 180D.
02
The criteria the system uses to determine whether this assessment is borne out by the stated horizon.
Method
The condition the system checks for when evaluating this assessment.
Minimum source quality
Evidence must meet or exceed this credibility tier to count toward evaluation.
Required terms
autochthonousestablishingtransmissionsub-tropical03
Tracking since Apr 22, 2026.
06
The current analyst narrative for this scope.
Hong Kong confirms its first locally acquired dengue case of 2026 while simultaneous chikungunya surges in La Réunion (47,000+ cases), Spain, and Mauritius signal a coordinated multi-region Aedes vector season onset.
First locally acquired HK dengue case confirmed Apr 22 — direct first data point
07
3 linked items.
Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 2 tracked assessments.
25 cases
This report is recorded in the evidence trail but is not yet linked to a tracked assessment.
This report is recorded in the evidence trail but is not yet linked to a tracked assessment.
Integrity anchor
Brier 0.202
19 resolved novel pathogen detection predictions.