No novel sarbecovirus or merbecovirus with sustained human-to-human transmission declared via WHO DON or equivalent PHEIC-class authority through 2026-12-31.

System-generated assessment. This assessment remains under review until the stated horizon or until sufficient evidence allows evaluation.

Substantial confidence

Confidence in this assessment

73%+3%

Multiple lines of evidence are aligned, though the assessment remains provisional. Based on 0 linked evidence items and assessed against Dec 31, 2026.

Confidence trend

Up 3 pts from the previous update

Assessed through Dec 31, 20260 linked evidence itemsTracking since Apr 20, 2026

How this assessment will be evaluated

The criteria the system uses to determine whether this assessment is borne out by the stated horizon.

Automated

Method

Evidence Match

The condition the system checks for when evaluating this assessment.

Minimum source quality

T1Primary Institutional

Evidence must meet or exceed this credibility tier to count toward evaluation.

Required terms

human-to-humansarbecovirusmerbecovirustransmission

Evidence quality mix

Tracking since Apr 20, 2026.

Integrity referencesCryptographic hashes for verification

Registration

Integrity anchor

Brier 0.202

19 resolved novel pathogen detection predictions.

Scope synthesis

The current analyst narrative for this scope.

Open synthesis →

MERS camel-to-human transmission confirmed in Somalia for the first time; SARS-CoV-2 activity consistent with endemic seasonal patterns with no novel emergence signals.

Somalia MERS is zoonotic (not H2H), consistent with no novel merbeco H2H emergence

Evidence linked to this assessment

0 linked items.

No linked evidence is available for this assessment yet.