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Epi Canary — Epidemic IntelligenceEvidence-led epidemic intelligence. Source-attributed evidence.
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Public note

For situational awareness and research transparency. Not medical advice.

Novel Pathogen Detectionactive

MERS-CoV will be confirmed via WHO DON or equivalent national MoH report in at least one additional East African country (Kenya, Ethiopia, Djibouti, or Eritrea) by end 2026, following Somalia's first confirmed camel-to-human case Apr 22 2026.

System-generated assessment. This assessment remains under review until the stated horizon or until sufficient evidence allows evaluation.

Moderate confidence

Confidence in this assessment
50%

The evidence is meaningful, but there is still material uncertainty. Based on 0 linked evidence items and assessed against 180D.

Assessed through 180D·0 linked evidence items·Tracking since Apr 22, 2026

02

How this assessment will be evaluated

The criteria the system uses to determine whether this assessment is borne out by the stated horizon.

Automated

Method

Evidence Match

The condition the system checks for when evaluating this assessment.

Minimum source quality

T1Primary Institutional

Evidence must meet or exceed this credibility tier to count toward evaluation.

Required terms

camel-to-humanequivalentadditionalconfirmed

03

Evidence quality mix

Tracking since Apr 22, 2026.

▸Integrity referencesCryptographic hashes for verification

Registration

06

Scope synthesis

The current analyst narrative for this scope.

Open synthesis →

MERS camel-to-human transmission confirmed in Somalia for the first time; SARS-CoV-2 activity consistent with endemic seasonal patterns with no novel emergence signals.

07

Evidence linked to this assessment

0 linked items.

No linked evidence is available for this assessment yet.

Integrity anchor

Brier 0.202

19 resolved novel pathogen detection predictions.