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Epi Canary — Epidemic IntelligenceEvidence-led epidemic intelligence. Source-attributed evidence.
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Public note

For situational awareness and research transparency. Not medical advice.

Novel Pathogen Detectionactive

At least one MPXV Clade I or Clade Ib case in the California cluster (or a direct epidemiological contact) will demonstrate tecovirimat treatment failure — defined as progressive or non-resolving lesions after ≥14 days of standard-dose therapy — documented by CDC, CDPH, or peer-reviewed source by 2026-07-19. F13L mutation conferring phenotypic resistance is already documented in Clade IIb (Contag et al., EID Dec 2023, PMC10683816); if the SF/California Clade I exposure is reaching immunocompromised hosts (HIV/AIDS, oncology patients) — the highest-risk population for resistance selection — ...

System-generated assessment. This assessment remains under review until the stated horizon or until sufficient evidence allows evaluation.

Emerging confidence

Confidence in this assessment
30%

There are early indications, but the picture is not yet stable. Based on 1 linked evidence item and assessed against 90d.

Assessed through 90d·1 linked evidence item·Tracking since Apr 20, 2026

02

How this assessment will be evaluated

The criteria the system uses to determine whether this assessment is borne out by the stated horizon.

Automated

Method

Evidence Match

The condition the system checks for when evaluating this assessment.

Minimum source quality

T1Primary Institutional

Evidence must meet or exceed this credibility tier to count toward evaluation.

Required terms

immunocompromisedepidemiologicalnon-resolvingstandard-dose

03

Evidence quality mix

Tracking since Apr 20, 2026.

T21
▸Integrity referencesCryptographic hashes for verification

Registration

06

Scope synthesis

The current analyst narrative for this scope.

Open synthesis →

Africa CDC Outbreak Brief 26 confirms multi-country Africa Clade Ib burden; MPXV female genital tract replication study reinforces multi-mode transmission plausibility for Clade Ib non-sexual spread hypotheses.

07

Evidence linked to this assessment

1 linked item.

MPOX - USA (03): (CALIFORNIA) SAN FRANCISCO, CLADE I. The CDPH is monitoring the situation and e

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 2 tracked assessments.

T2https://www.promedmail.org/?alert=8732325neutral
Apr 19, 2026

Integrity anchor

Brier 0.202

19 resolved novel pathogen detection predictions.