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Epi Canary — Epidemic IntelligenceEvidence-led epidemic intelligence. Source-attributed evidence.
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Public note

For situational awareness and research transparency. Not medical advice.

Novel Pathogen Detectionresolved

A confirmed MPXV inter-clade recombinant strain (Ia/Ib or Ib/IIb genomic elements) will be reported in a peer-reviewed publication or WHO/Africa CDC bulletin within 180 days, arising from DRC tri-clade co-circulation confirmed Apr 3 2026.

System-generated assessment. This assessment remains under review until the stated horizon or until sufficient evidence allows evaluation.

Moderate confidence

Confidence in this assessment
50%

The evidence is meaningful, but there is still material uncertainty. Based on 0 linked evidence items and assessed against 180D.

Assessed through 180D·0 linked evidence items·Tracking since Apr 20, 2026

02

How this assessment will be evaluated

The criteria the system uses to determine whether this assessment is borne out by the stated horizon.

Automated

Method

Evidence Match

The condition the system checks for when evaluating this assessment.

Minimum source quality

T1Primary Institutional

Evidence must meet or exceed this credibility tier to count toward evaluation.

Required terms

co-circulationpeer-reviewedinter-claderecombinant

Outcome

Apr 20, 2026
Observed by horizonReliability score (Brier): 1.000

Resolved with score 1

T2·Unknown

03

Evidence quality mix

Tracking since Apr 20, 2026.

▸Integrity referencesCryptographic hashes for verification

Registration

Resolution signature

06

Scope synthesis

The current analyst narrative for this scope.

Open synthesis →

Africa CDC Outbreak Brief 26 confirms multi-country Africa Clade Ib burden; MPXV female genital tract replication study reinforces multi-mode transmission plausibility for Clade Ib non-sexual spread hypotheses.

07

Evidence linked to this assessment

0 linked items.

No linked evidence is available for this assessment yet.

Integrity anchor

Brier 0.202

19 resolved novel pathogen detection predictions.