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Epi Canary — Epidemic IntelligenceEvidence-led epidemic intelligence. Source-attributed evidence.
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Public note

For situational awareness and research transparency. Not medical advice.

Novel Pathogen Detectionactive

At least one confirmed human H5N1 case with no direct poultry contact will be reported by a T1 source before July 2026.

System-generated assessment. This assessment remains under review until the stated horizon or until sufficient evidence allows evaluation.

Moderate confidence

Confidence in this assessment
40%

The evidence is meaningful, but there is still material uncertainty. Based on 7 linked evidence items and assessed against Jul 1, 2026.

Assessed through Jul 1, 2026·7 linked evidence items·Tracking since Apr 12, 2026

02

How this assessment will be evaluated

The criteria the system uses to determine whether this assessment is borne out by the stated horizon.

Automated

Method

Evidence Match

The condition the system checks for when evaluating this assessment.

Minimum source quality

T1Primary Institutional

Evidence must meet or exceed this credibility tier to count toward evaluation.

Required terms

confirmedreportedpoultrycontact

03

Evidence quality mix

Tracking since Apr 12, 2026.

T14
T23
▸Integrity referencesCryptographic hashes for verification

Registration

06

Scope synthesis

The current analyst narrative for this scope.

Open synthesis →

H5N1 risk trajectory steady; semen-transmission hypotheses approach Apr 28 resolution with no new USDA data; Cambodia holds at 4 YTD human cases.

07

Evidence linked to this assessment

7 linked items.

Avian Influenza A(H5N1) - Cambodia. Seven of the 11 cases were reported in June, an unusual mont

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 2 tracked assessments.

11 cases · 0 deaths · 0 samples

T1https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2025-DON575supports
Apr 17, 2026
AVIAN INFLUENZA - INDIA (18): (KARNATAKA) POULTRY, H5N1. These include establishing affected and

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 3 tracked assessments.

T2https://www.promedmail.org/?alert=8732328
supports
Apr 20, 2026
Avian Influenza A(H5N1) - Mexico. To date, no further cases of human infection with influenza A(

This report is recorded in the evidence trail but is not yet linked to a tracked assessment.

T1https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2025-DON564neutral
Apr 17, 2026
Avian Influenza A(H5N1) - Cambodia. Since then, 83 cases of human infection with influenza A(H5N

This report is recorded in the evidence trail but is not yet linked to a tracked assessment.

83 cases · 49 deaths · 0 samples

T1https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2025-DON575neutral
Apr 17, 2026
Avian Influenza A(H5N1) - Cambodia. Since then, 83 cases of human infection with influenza A(H5N

This report is recorded in the evidence trail but is not yet linked to a tracked assessment.

83 cases · 49 deaths · 0 samples

T2https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2025-DON575neutral
Apr 13, 2026
AVIAN INFLUENZA - INDIA (18): (KARNATAKA) POULTRY, H5N1. Following an outbreak of H5N1 avian inf

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 2 tracked assessments.

T2https://www.promedmail.org/?alert=8732328supports
Apr 20, 2026
Avian Influenza A(H5N1) - Mexico. In accordance with the IHR (2005), any human infection caused

This report is recorded in the evidence trail but is not yet linked to a tracked assessment.

T1https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2025-DON564neutral
Apr 17, 2026

Integrity anchor

Brier 0.202

19 resolved novel pathogen detection predictions.