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Epi Canary — Epidemic IntelligenceEvidence-led epidemic intelligence. Source-attributed evidence.
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Public note

For situational awareness and research transparency. Not medical advice.

Novel Pathogen Detectionactive

A novel recombinant mpox lineage arising from tri-clade co-circulation (Clade Ia, Ib, and Clade IIb) in the Republic of the Congo will be genomically documented by April 2027, based on the first reported co-circulation of all three major mpox clades in a single geography.

System-generated assessment. This assessment remains under review until the stated horizon or until sufficient evidence allows evaluation.

Emerging confidence

Confidence in this assessment
30%

There are early indications, but the picture is not yet stable. Based on 15 linked evidence items and assessed against Apr 30, 2027.

Assessed through Apr 30, 2027·15 linked evidence items·Tracking since Apr 14, 2026

02

How this assessment will be evaluated

The criteria the system uses to determine whether this assessment is borne out by the stated horizon.

Automated

Method

Evidence Match

The condition the system checks for when evaluating this assessment.

Minimum source quality

T1Primary Institutional

Evidence must meet or exceed this credibility tier to count toward evaluation.

Required terms

co-circulationrecombinantgenomicallydocumented

03

Evidence quality mix

Tracking since Apr 14, 2026.

T14
T211
▸Integrity referencesCryptographic hashes for verification

Registration

06

Scope synthesis

The current analyst narrative for this scope.

Open synthesis →

Clade Ib multi-modal European spread continues; new research confirms MPXV replication in vaginal/ectocervical tissue, strengthening plausibility of non-sexual transmission routes.

07

Evidence linked to this assessment

15 linked items.

Broader transmission of mpox due to clade Ib MPXV – Global situation. As both MPXV clades I and

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 15 tracked assessments.

T1https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2025-DON587supports
Apr 17, 2026
MPOX - USA (03): (CALIFORNIA) SAN FRANCISCO, CLADE I. The CDPH is monitoring the situation and e

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 2 tracked assessments.

T2https://www.promedmail.org/?alert=8732325neutral
Apr 19, 2026
MPOX - USA (03): (CALIFORNIA) SAN FRANCISCO, CLADE I. The California Department of Public Health

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 2 tracked assessments.

T2https://www.promedmail.org/?alert=8732325neutral
Apr 19, 2026
Epidemiology and phylogenomic characterization of the Clade IIb C.1 Mpox outbreak in Phnom Penh,

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 13 tracked assessments.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41575511/supports
Apr 14, 2026
Epidemiology and phylogenomic characterization of the Clade IIb C.1 Mpox outbreak in Phnom Penh,

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 13 tracked assessments.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41575511/supports
Apr 14, 2026
Epidemiology and phylogenomic characterization of the Clade IIb C.1 Mpox outbreak in Phnom Penh,

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 13 tracked assessments.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41575511/supports
Apr 14, 2026
Epidemiology and phylogenomic characterization of the Clade IIb C.1 Mpox outbreak in Phnom Penh,

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 13 tracked assessments.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41575511/supports
Apr 13, 2026
Epidemiology and phylogenomic characterization of the Clade IIb C.1 Mpox outbreak in Phnom Penh,

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 13 tracked assessments.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41575511/supports
Apr 13, 2026
Epidemiology and phylogenomic characterization of the Clade IIb C.1 Mpox outbreak in Phnom Penh,

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 13 tracked assessments.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41575511/supports
Apr 13, 2026
Broader transmission of mpox due to clade Ib MPXV – Global situation. As both MPXV clades I and

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 15 tracked assessments.

T2https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2025-DON587supports
Apr 13, 2026
9 Mpox deaths, 25 cases reported across Sindh province, Pakistan. Dunya News, April 15 2026. The

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 11 tracked assessments.

T2https://dunyanews.tv/en/Pakistan/mpox-sindh-deaths-casessupports
Apr 16, 2026
Mpox: recombinant virus with genomic elements of clades Ib and IIb – Global situation. Both case

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 1 tracked assessment.

T1https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2026-DON595supports
Apr 17, 2026
Mpox: recombinant virus with genomic elements of clades Ib and IIb – Global situation. The first

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 1 tracked assessment.

T1https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2026-DON595supports
Apr 17, 2026
Infectious respiratory particles exhaled by Clade IIb Mpox virus-infected macaques. It is often

This report is recorded in the evidence trail but is not yet linked to a tracked assessment.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41991489/neutral
Apr 17, 2026
Mpox: recombinant virus with genomic elements of clades Ib and IIb – Global situation. Detailed

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 1 tracked assessment.

T1https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2026-DON595supports
Apr 17, 2026

Integrity anchor

Brier 0.202

19 resolved novel pathogen detection predictions.