Epi CanaryEpi Canary
  • Home
  • Feed
  • Synthesis
  • Assessments
  • Scopes
  • Reliability
  • Sources
Epi Canary — Epidemic IntelligenceEvidence-led epidemic intelligence. Source-attributed evidence.
Arcede logoMade by Arcede

Public note

For situational awareness and research transparency. Not medical advice.

Novel Pathogen Detectionactive

Mpox Clade IIb C.1 will establish sustained community transmission in at least one additional Southeast Asian country beyond Cambodia by October 2026, based on the documented Phnom Penh outbreak and regional mobility patterns.

System-generated assessment. This assessment remains under review until the stated horizon or until sufficient evidence allows evaluation.

Moderate confidence

Confidence in this assessment
50%

The evidence is meaningful, but there is still material uncertainty. Based on 17 linked evidence items and assessed against Oct 31, 2026.

Assessed through Oct 31, 2026·17 linked evidence items·Tracking since Apr 13, 2026

02

How this assessment will be evaluated

The criteria the system uses to determine whether this assessment is borne out by the stated horizon.

Automated

Method

Evidence Match

The condition the system checks for when evaluating this assessment.

Minimum source quality

T1Primary Institutional

Evidence must meet or exceed this credibility tier to count toward evaluation.

Required terms

transmissionadditionaldocumentedestablish

03

Evidence quality mix

Tracking since Apr 13, 2026.

T14
T213
▸Integrity referencesCryptographic hashes for verification

Registration

06

Scope synthesis

The current analyst narrative for this scope.

Open synthesis →

Africa CDC Outbreak Brief 26 confirms multi-country Africa Clade Ib burden; MPXV female genital tract replication study reinforces multi-mode transmission plausibility for Clade Ib non-sexual spread hypotheses.

07

Evidence linked to this assessment

17 linked items.

Broader transmission of mpox due to clade Ib MPXV – Global situation. Multiple modes of transmis

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 14 tracked assessments.

T1https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2025-DON587supports
Apr 17, 2026
Broader transmission of mpox due to clade Ib MPXV – Global situation. As both MPXV clades I and

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 15 tracked assessments.

T1https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2025-DON587
supports
Apr 17, 2026
Broader transmission of mpox due to clade Ib MPXV – Global situation. The second declaration of

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 15 tracked assessments.

T1https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2025-DON587supports
Apr 17, 2026
MPOX - USA (03): (CALIFORNIA) SAN FRANCISCO, CLADE I. The CDPH is monitoring the situation and e

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 2 tracked assessments.

T2https://www.promedmail.org/?alert=8732325neutral
Apr 19, 2026
MPOX - USA (03): (CALIFORNIA) SAN FRANCISCO, CLADE I. The California Department of Public Health

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 2 tracked assessments.

T2https://www.promedmail.org/?alert=8732325neutral
Apr 19, 2026
Epidemiology and phylogenomic characterization of the Clade IIb C.1 Mpox outbreak in Phnom Penh,

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 13 tracked assessments.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41575511/supports
Apr 14, 2026
Epidemiology and phylogenomic characterization of the Clade IIb C.1 Mpox outbreak in Phnom Penh,

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 13 tracked assessments.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41575511/supports
Apr 14, 2026
Epidemiology and phylogenomic characterization of the Clade IIb C.1 Mpox outbreak in Phnom Penh,

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 13 tracked assessments.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41575511/supports
Apr 14, 2026
Epidemiology and phylogenomic characterization of the Clade IIb C.1 Mpox outbreak in Phnom Penh,

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 13 tracked assessments.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41575511/supports
Apr 13, 2026
Epidemiology and phylogenomic characterization of the Clade IIb C.1 Mpox outbreak in Phnom Penh,

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 13 tracked assessments.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41575511/supports
Apr 13, 2026
Epidemiology and phylogenomic characterization of the Clade IIb C.1 Mpox outbreak in Phnom Penh,

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 13 tracked assessments.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41575511/supports
Apr 13, 2026
Broader transmission of mpox due to clade Ib MPXV – Global situation. Multiple modes of transmis

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 14 tracked assessments.

T2https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2025-DON587supports
Apr 13, 2026
Broader transmission of mpox due to clade Ib MPXV – Global situation. As both MPXV clades I and

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 15 tracked assessments.

T2https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2025-DON587supports
Apr 13, 2026
Broader transmission of mpox due to clade Ib MPXV – Global situation. The second declaration of

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 15 tracked assessments.

T2https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2025-DON587supports
Apr 13, 2026
MPOX - GHANA (05): EPIDEMIC UPDATE. The Ghana Health Service has confirmed additional cases of m

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 12 tracked assessments.

T2https://www.promedmail.org/?alert=8732298supports
Apr 17, 2026
Mpox: recombinant virus with genomic elements of clades Ib and IIb – Global situation. The first

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 1 tracked assessment.

T1https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2026-DON595neutral
Apr 17, 2026
Infectious respiratory particles exhaled by Clade IIb Mpox virus-infected macaques. It is often

This report is recorded in the evidence trail but is not yet linked to a tracked assessment.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41991489/neutral
Apr 17, 2026

Integrity anchor

Brier 0.202

19 resolved novel pathogen detection predictions.