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Epi Canary — Epidemic IntelligenceEvidence-led epidemic intelligence. Source-attributed evidence.
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Public note

For situational awareness and research transparency. Not medical advice.

Novel Pathogen Detectionactive

At least one imported Clade IIb C.1 case linked to Cambodia will be confirmed in Thailand or Vietnam by July 31 2026, based on phylogenomic documentation of sustained community transmission in Phnom Penh and high-frequency air travel routes connecting Cambodia to these countries.

System-generated assessment. This assessment remains under review until the stated horizon or until sufficient evidence allows evaluation.

Substantial confidence

Confidence in this assessment
60%

Multiple lines of evidence are aligned, though the assessment remains provisional. Based on 6 linked evidence items and assessed against Jul 31, 2026.

Assessed through Jul 31, 2026·6 linked evidence items·Tracking since Apr 13, 2026

02

How this assessment will be evaluated

The criteria the system uses to determine whether this assessment is borne out by the stated horizon.

Automated

Method

Evidence Match

The condition the system checks for when evaluating this assessment.

Minimum source quality

T1Primary Institutional

Evidence must meet or exceed this credibility tier to count toward evaluation.

Required terms

high-frequencydocumentationphylogenomictransmission

03

Evidence quality mix

Tracking since Apr 13, 2026.

T26
▸Integrity referencesCryptographic hashes for verification

Registration

06

Scope synthesis

The current analyst narrative for this scope.

Open synthesis →

Africa CDC Outbreak Brief 26 confirms multi-country Africa Clade Ib burden; MPXV female genital tract replication study reinforces multi-mode transmission plausibility for Clade Ib non-sexual spread hypotheses.

07

Evidence linked to this assessment

6 linked items.

Epidemiology and phylogenomic characterization of the Clade IIb C.1 Mpox outbreak in Phnom Penh,

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 13 tracked assessments.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41575511/supports
Apr 14, 2026
Epidemiology and phylogenomic characterization of the Clade IIb C.1 Mpox outbreak in Phnom Penh,

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 13 tracked assessments.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41575511/supports
Apr 14, 2026
Epidemiology and phylogenomic characterization of the Clade IIb C.1 Mpox outbreak in Phnom Penh,

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 13 tracked assessments.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41575511/supports
Apr 14, 2026
Epidemiology and phylogenomic characterization of the Clade IIb C.1 Mpox outbreak in Phnom Penh,

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 13 tracked assessments.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41575511/supports
Apr 13, 2026
Epidemiology and phylogenomic characterization of the Clade IIb C.1 Mpox outbreak in Phnom Penh,

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 13 tracked assessments.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41575511/supports
Apr 13, 2026
Epidemiology and phylogenomic characterization of the Clade IIb C.1 Mpox outbreak in Phnom Penh,

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 13 tracked assessments.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41575511/supports
Apr 13, 2026

Integrity anchor

Brier 0.202

19 resolved novel pathogen detection predictions.