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Epi Canary — Epidemic IntelligenceEvidence-led epidemic intelligence. Source-attributed evidence.
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Public note

For situational awareness and research transparency. Not medical advice.

Novel Pathogen Detectionactive

WHO will issue pediatric-specific mpox vaccination guidance or Emergency Committee recommendation addressing Clade Ib-affected/at-risk regions including South/Southeast Asia within 180 days, driven by documented pediatric mortality in Pakistan (9 deaths) and Singapore community transmission.

System-generated assessment. This assessment remains under review until the stated horizon or until sufficient evidence allows evaluation.

Moderate confidence

Confidence in this assessment
50%

The evidence is meaningful, but there is still material uncertainty. Based on 6 linked evidence items and assessed against 180D.

Assessed through 180D·6 linked evidence items·Tracking since Apr 19, 2026

02

How this assessment will be evaluated

The criteria the system uses to determine whether this assessment is borne out by the stated horizon.

Automated

Method

Evidence Match

The condition the system checks for when evaluating this assessment.

Minimum source quality

T1Primary Institutional

Evidence must meet or exceed this credibility tier to count toward evaluation.

Required terms

pediatric-specificrecommendationtransmissionvaccination

03

Evidence quality mix

Tracking since Apr 19, 2026.

T13
T23
▸Integrity referencesCryptographic hashes for verification

Registration

06

Scope synthesis

The current analyst narrative for this scope.

Open synthesis →

Africa CDC Outbreak Brief 26 confirms multi-country Africa Clade Ib burden; MPXV female genital tract replication study reinforces multi-mode transmission plausibility for Clade Ib non-sexual spread hypotheses.

07

Evidence linked to this assessment

6 linked items.

Broader transmission of mpox due to clade Ib MPXV – Global situation. Multiple modes of transmis

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 14 tracked assessments.

T1https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2025-DON587supports
Apr 17, 2026
Broader transmission of mpox due to clade Ib MPXV – Global situation. As both MPXV clades I and

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 15 tracked assessments.

T1https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2025-DON587
supports
Apr 17, 2026
Broader transmission of mpox due to clade Ib MPXV – Global situation. The second declaration of

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 15 tracked assessments.

T1https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2025-DON587supports
Apr 17, 2026
Broader transmission of mpox due to clade Ib MPXV – Global situation. Multiple modes of transmis

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 14 tracked assessments.

T2https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2025-DON587supports
Apr 13, 2026
Broader transmission of mpox due to clade Ib MPXV – Global situation. As both MPXV clades I and

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 15 tracked assessments.

T2https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2025-DON587supports
Apr 13, 2026
Broader transmission of mpox due to clade Ib MPXV – Global situation. The second declaration of

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 15 tracked assessments.

T2https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2025-DON587supports
Apr 13, 2026

Integrity anchor

Brier 0.202

19 resolved novel pathogen detection predictions.