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Epi Canary — Epidemic IntelligenceEvidence-led epidemic intelligence. Source-attributed evidence.
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Public note

For situational awareness and research transparency. Not medical advice.

Novel Pathogen Detectionresolved

A circulating recombinant form or rapidly expanding HIV subtype cluster with outbreak-like transmission dynamics will be reported within 180 days.

System-generated assessment. This assessment remains under review until the stated horizon or until sufficient evidence allows evaluation.

Moderate confidence

Confidence in this assessment
50%

The evidence is meaningful, but there is still material uncertainty. Based on 3 linked evidence items and assessed against P180D.

Assessed through P180D·3 linked evidence items·Tracking since Apr 13, 2026

02

How this assessment will be evaluated

The criteria the system uses to determine whether this assessment is borne out by the stated horizon.

Automated

Method

Evidence Match

The condition the system checks for when evaluating this assessment.

Minimum source quality

T1Primary Institutional

Evidence must meet or exceed this credibility tier to count toward evaluation.

Required terms

outbreak-liketransmissioncirculatingrecombinant

Outcome

Apr 13, 2026
Observed by horizonReliability score (Brier): 0.214

Resolved with score 0.2142857142857143

T2·Unknown

03

Evidence quality mix

Tracking since Apr 13, 2026.

T23
▸Integrity referencesCryptographic hashes for verification

Registration

Resolution signature

06

Scope synthesis

The current analyst narrative for this scope.

Open synthesis →

HIV/AIDS evidence pipeline at lowest coverage across all scopes this cycle; all connectors stale or failing; PEPFAR litigation and SSA program impact hypotheses remain open without new data.

07

Evidence linked to this assessment

3 linked items.

Stigma in UK health care: a key barrier to reaching zero HIV transmission by 2030. With zero HIV

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 3 tracked assessments.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41952053/supports
Apr 17, 2026
Stigma in UK health care: a key barrier to reaching zero HIV transmission by 2030. With zero HIV

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 3 tracked assessments.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41952053/supports
Apr 15, 2026
Stigma in UK health care: a key barrier to reaching zero HIV transmission by 2030. With zero HIV

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 3 tracked assessments.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41952053/supports
Apr 14, 2026
Mirror replication is delayed on 2 of 3 tables. Showing last replicated data. Data may be stale.

Integrity anchor

Brier 0.202

19 resolved novel pathogen detection predictions.