Marburg virus disease - Rwanda. As of 19 December 2024, 66 confirmed cases,15 deaths with a case
Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 5 tracked assessments.
0 cases · 15 deaths · 0 samples
Public note
For situational awareness and research transparency. Not medical advice.
System-generated assessment. This assessment remains under review until the stated horizon or until sufficient evidence allows evaluation.
Substantial confidence
Multiple lines of evidence are aligned, though the assessment remains provisional. Based on 1 linked evidence item and assessed against P90D.
02
The criteria the system uses to determine whether this assessment is borne out by the stated horizon.
Method
The condition the system checks for when evaluating this assessment.
Minimum source quality
Evidence must meet or exceed this credibility tier to count toward evaluation.
Required terms
high-confidenceinvestigationhemorrhagicconfirmedOutcome
Resolved with score 0.17142857142857146
03
Tracking since Apr 13, 2026.
06
The current analyst narrative for this scope.
Uganda Sudan Virus Disease outbreak declared over (Final Brief 16, Apr 20), constituting a qualifying filovirus spillover event; Nigeria Lassa and Burundi mystery illness hypotheses unchanged pending sitrep updates.
07
1 linked item.
Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 5 tracked assessments.
0 cases · 15 deaths · 0 samples
Integrity anchor
Brier 0.210
17 resolved novel pathogen detection predictions.