Mirror replication is delayed on 2 of 3 tables. Showing last replicated data. Data may be stale.

Public note

For situational awareness and research transparency. Not medical advice.

Novel Pathogen Detectionactive

The Uganda Sudan Virus Disease outbreak will receive an official WHO Disease Outbreak News entry within 30 days of the Africa CDC Outbreak Brief 15 (Apr 19 2026).

System-generated assessment. This assessment remains under review until the stated horizon or until sufficient evidence allows evaluation.

Substantial confidence

Confidence in this assessment

60%

Multiple lines of evidence are aligned, though the assessment remains provisional. Based on 31 linked evidence items and assessed against 90D.

Assessed through 90D31 linked evidence itemsTracking since Apr 19, 2026

How this assessment will be evaluated

The criteria the system uses to determine whether this assessment is borne out by the stated horizon.

Automated

Method

Evidence Match

The condition the system checks for when evaluating this assessment.

Minimum source quality

T1Primary Institutional

Evidence must meet or exceed this credibility tier to count toward evaluation.

Required terms

outbreakofficialdiseasereceive

Evidence quality mix

Tracking since Apr 19, 2026.

T125

T26

Integrity referencesCryptographic hashes for verification

Registration

Integrity anchor

Brier 0.210

17 resolved novel pathogen detection predictions.

Scope synthesis

The current analyst narrative for this scope.

Open synthesis →

Uganda Sudan Virus Disease outbreak declared over (Final Brief 16, Apr 20), constituting a qualifying filovirus spillover event; Nigeria Lassa and Burundi mystery illness hypotheses unchanged pending sitrep updates.

Evidence linked to this assessment

31 linked items.

Marburg virus disease - Rwanda. The outbreak had been declared on 27 September 2024.

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 5 tracked assessments.

T1https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2024-DON548supports

Apr 17, 2026

A call for strengthening surveillance and preventive efforts for Ebola virus disease outbreak in

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 3 tracked assessments.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41830683/