Public note
For situational awareness and research transparency. Not medical advice.
System-generated assessment. This assessment remains under review until the stated horizon or until sufficient evidence allows evaluation.
Substantial confidence
Multiple lines of evidence are aligned, though the assessment remains provisional. Based on 0 linked evidence items and assessed against 60D.
02
The criteria the system uses to determine whether this assessment is borne out by the stated horizon.
Method
The condition the system checks for when evaluating this assessment.
Minimum source quality
Evidence must meet or exceed this credibility tier to count toward evaluation.
Required terms
well-documentedamplificationmsf-supportedcumulatively03
Tracking since Apr 20, 2026.
06
The current analyst narrative for this scope.
Uganda Sudan Virus Disease outbreak declared over (Final Brief 16, Apr 20), constituting a qualifying filovirus spillover event; Nigeria Lassa and Burundi mystery illness hypotheses unchanged pending sitrep updates.
No Benue State/NCDC sitrep update; prior trajectory holds
07
0 linked items.
No linked evidence is available for this assessment yet.
Integrity anchor
Brier 0.202
19 resolved novel pathogen detection predictions.