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Epi Canary — Epidemic IntelligenceEvidence-led epidemic intelligence. Source-attributed evidence.
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Public note

For situational awareness and research transparency. Not medical advice.

Novel Pathogen Detectionactive

Rift Valley fever will see ≥1 new laboratory-confirmed human outbreak cluster (≥5 cases) reported in Senegal, Mauritania, Kenya, Tanzania, or Sudan between 2026-04-20 and 2026-10-20, following the Sep-Oct 2025 Senegal/Mauritania re-emergence (17 deaths Senegal, Africa CDC "comeback" flag Sep 30 2025) and known seasonal/climate-driven pattern.</magnitude> <parameter name="key_assumption">RVF outbreaks in Sahel follow heavy rainfall patterns; 2025 rains were documented as elevated. Senegal and Mauritania cross-border circulation has ongoing mosquito transmission cycle. CEPI/Oxford/Serum stock...

System-generated assessment. This assessment remains under review until the stated horizon or until sufficient evidence allows evaluation.

Substantial confidence

Confidence in this assessment
60%

Multiple lines of evidence are aligned, though the assessment remains provisional. Based on 2 linked evidence items and assessed against 180D.

Assessed through 180D·2 linked evidence items·Tracking since Apr 20, 2026

02

How this assessment will be evaluated

The criteria the system uses to determine whether this assessment is borne out by the stated horizon.

Automated

Method

Evidence Match

The condition the system checks for when evaluating this assessment.

Minimum source quality

T1Primary Institutional

Evidence must meet or exceed this credibility tier to count toward evaluation.

Required terms

laboratory-confirmedclimate-drivenre-emergencecross-border

03

Evidence quality mix

Tracking since Apr 20, 2026.

T22
▸Integrity referencesCryptographic hashes for verification

Registration

06

Scope synthesis

The current analyst narrative for this scope.

Open synthesis →

Uganda Sudan Virus Disease outbreak declared over (Final Brief 16, Apr 20), constituting a qualifying filovirus spillover event; Nigeria Lassa and Burundi mystery illness hypotheses unchanged pending sitrep updates.

No new RVF human cluster in Sahel countries

07

Evidence linked to this assessment

2 linked items.

Accuracy of rapid and near-patient diagnostics for detection of rift valley fever and Crimean-Co

This report is recorded in the evidence trail but is not yet linked to a tracked assessment.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41850035/neutral
Apr 17, 2026
Accuracy of rapid and near-patient diagnostics for detection of rift valley fever and Crimean-Co

This report is recorded in the evidence trail but is not yet linked to a tracked assessment.

T2https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41850035/
neutral
Apr 14, 2026

Integrity anchor

Brier 0.202

19 resolved novel pathogen detection predictions.

Mirror replication is delayed on 2 of 3 tables. Showing last replicated data. Data may be stale.