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Epi Canary — Epidemic IntelligenceEvidence-led epidemic intelligence. Source-attributed evidence.
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Public note

For situational awareness and research transparency. Not medical advice.

Novel Pathogen Detectionresolved

H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b will establish sustained cattle-to-cattle transmission in at least 3 US states by Q2 2026.

System-generated assessment. This assessment remains under review until the stated horizon or until sufficient evidence allows evaluation.

Substantial confidence

Confidence in this assessment
70%

Multiple lines of evidence are aligned, though the assessment remains provisional. Based on 1 linked evidence item and assessed against Jun 30, 2026.

Assessed through Jun 30, 2026·1 linked evidence item·Tracking since Apr 12, 2026

02

How this assessment will be evaluated

The criteria the system uses to determine whether this assessment is borne out by the stated horizon.

Automated

Method

Evidence Match

The condition the system checks for when evaluating this assessment.

Minimum source quality

T1Primary Institutional

Evidence must meet or exceed this credibility tier to count toward evaluation.

Required terms

cattle-to-cattletransmissionestablishsustained

Outcome

Apr 12, 2026
Observed by horizonReliability score (Brier): 1.000

Resolved with score 1

T2·Unknown

03

Evidence quality mix

Tracking since Apr 12, 2026.

T21
▸Integrity referencesCryptographic hashes for verification

Registration

Resolution signature

06

Scope synthesis

The current analyst narrative for this scope.

Open synthesis →

H5N1 risk elevated across multiple fronts: Cambodia sustaining human spillover, semen-RNA detected in US dairy cattle, and Nepal-India poultry corridor expanding.

07

Evidence linked to this assessment

1 linked item.

AVIAN INFLUENZA - INDIA (18): (KARNATAKA) POULTRY, H5N1. These include establishing affected and

Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 3 tracked assessments.

T2https://www.promedmail.org/?alert=8732328supports
Apr 20, 2026

Integrity anchor

Brier 0.202

19 resolved novel pathogen detection predictions.