Chikungunya - La Réunion and Mayotte. Although chikungunya outbreaks and endemic transmission oc
Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 9 tracked assessments.
Public note
For situational awareness and research transparency. Not medical advice.
System-generated assessment. This assessment remains under review until the stated horizon or until sufficient evidence allows evaluation.
Substantial confidence
Multiple lines of evidence are aligned, though the assessment remains provisional. Based on 1 linked evidence item and assessed against Dec 31, 2027.
02
The criteria the system uses to determine whether this assessment is borne out by the stated horizon.
Method
The condition the system checks for when evaluating this assessment.
Minimum source quality
Evidence must meet or exceed this credibility tier to count toward evaluation.
Required terms
consecutive-yearautochthonoustransmissionestablishing03
Tracking since Apr 21, 2026.
06
The current analyst narrative for this scope.
Hong Kong confirms first locally acquired dengue case of 2026 vector season; multi-region simultaneous chikungunya escalation gaining strength with La Réunion, Spain, Mauritius, and Guangzhou epidemic modeling data.
Spain 2026 expanded window is consistent with structural Aedes season shift
07
1 linked item.
Currently interpreted as supporting evidence for 9 tracked assessments.
Integrity anchor
Brier 0.202
19 resolved novel pathogen detection predictions.